Confusion About BBT and Ovulation Kit Results

I'm using an ovulation test kit and taking basal body temperature. If there is a temperature drop and then an increase around the 13th to 14th day of a 28-day cycle, did ovulation take place before or after the temp drop or rise. Is true that the predictor kits are not as reliable as they claim to be? If you notice a positive result, they are now saying that ovulation has already occurred 24 prior to this.

Question:

A drop and then a rise in the BBT usually indicates the LH surge, which means that ovulation is imminent but Speroff, in "Clinical Gynecologic Endocrinology and Infertility," states: "...the time of ovulation predicted by the BBT does not always correlate well with measurements of the LH surge or with perceptions of maximal cervical mucus production. There is a relationship between the lowest point of temperature and the LH surge but the BBT is reliable in predicting the day of the LH surge only within two to three days. Although the lowest temperature is believed to represent the beginning of the LH surge, the occurrence of the lowest point of temperature is variable and often is not detected. To be used to predict ovulation, nearly absolute cycle regularity is required."

A recent study published in the journal "Obstetrics and Gynecology," January, 1996, evaluated the usefulness of a urinary LH kit for ovulation prediction in normal women. Their conclusion was that "urine LH testing every evening is a reliable method of predicting ovulation within the ensuing 48 hours." So, the test kit will demonstrate that ovulation is about to occur, not that it already has occurred.

I hope this has helped and best of luck.

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