I am very confused right now and just need an outside
Try not to over-think it. You're coming up with all sorts of scenarios but only one person knows exactly what the real deal is - and that's him.
Ask him about the other night and arriving with no "overnight" gear. What does he normally bring with him? Does he have enough stuff at your place now to get him by without bringing more stuff? Did he really HAVE to bring stuff to stay the night? Why are you assuming that he wouldn't stay the night just because he doesn't bring "stuff"? Maybe he had a reason for going home that night?
You need to be discussing this with him, not us. Even a comment like "Where's your gear? Are you not staying tonight?" would have been a simple thing to ask and would have solved all your questions there and then, painlessly.
The only person that knows what's going on in his mind is him. Why not just ask him? You've only been seeing each other a few months, maybe he had other committments he had to attend to.
I used to believe in forever, but forever was too good to be true.Winnie the Pooh
Definitely you should be asking him.