An Interesting Question

iVillage Member
Registered: 08-07-2008
An Interesting Question
8
Mon, 07-20-2009 - 10:30pm

Dave over at Circumcision And HIV has asked an interesting question about the recently released HIV trials which looked at Male to Female transmission. Read what he has to say here:

http://www.circumcisionandhiv.com/2009/07/africa-why-did-they-stop-the-study-to-examine-hiv-infection-among-partners-of-circumcised-men.html

The basic question, why didn't they let the experiment run to completion? Surprisingly, ethical approval for this kind of experiment had been given. The intervention group was infecting their partners at a rate approaching 50%. There was no clear benefit and if there was no clear detriment, why not finish? What would have happened if it had run to completion? Would we have found that circumcised HIV+ men were a greater danger to their partners?

iVillage Member
Registered: 07-02-2009
Tue, 07-21-2009 - 6:56pm

"Would we have found that circumcised HIV+ men were a greater danger to their partners?"


Only in the sense that they may consider themselves 'immune' once circumcised. But I'm reasonably confident the results would have turned out indecisive.


Christopher


"Education is the discovery of our own ignorance." Will Durant


"Almost any manmade phenomenon is explained by tradition, inertia - or both." Anon


CL - Circumcision Debate


"Education is the discovery of our own ignorance.

iVillage Member
Registered: 08-07-2008
Tue, 07-21-2009 - 7:11pm

islaywhisky said:


"Only in the sense that they may consider themselves 'immune' once circumcised. But I'm reasonably confident the results would have turned out indecisive."



How confident are you? I am just wondering; and why?
iVillage Member
Registered: 01-07-2008
Tue, 07-21-2009 - 8:16pm

It’s not hard to see that Johns Hopkins in only interested in (or being paid for) data that suggests circumcision has benefits.


When the first articles were published (2008) that showed higher rates of HIV in women with circumcised partners,

iVillage Member
Registered: 08-07-2008
Fri, 07-24-2009 - 6:11pm


Sorry to re ask, I was wondering could you elaborate islay?

islaywhisky said:

"Only in the sense that they may consider themselves 'immune' once circumcised. But I'm reasonably confident the results would have turned out indecisive."

How confident are you? I am just wondering; and why?

iVillage Member
Registered: 07-02-2009
Sat, 07-25-2009 - 5:22pm

Fairly confident, simply because the conditions under which the trials were conducted were less than ideal. Furthermore, few studies anywhere are truly without bias.


Christopher


"Education is the discovery of our own ignorance." Will Durant


"Almost any manmade phenomenon is explained by tradition, inertia - or both." Anon


CL - Circumcision Debate


"Education is the discovery of our own ignorance.

iVillage Member
Registered: 08-07-2008
Sat, 07-25-2009 - 6:41pm
Few conditions are but I'll tell you what I see and I preface this woith the fact that I've only breezed through the paper. The las measured figures were 12% and 18%. The final projected figure was at 13.4% and 21.7%. The gap widened. That is more like a 60% difference. Additionally although significance was not observed at the 95% level I believe it is at the 85% level. This would mean there is less than a 15% chance of a fluke. The trouble is hat since risk is greater in women by several times, any increase in their risk percentage wise would have a greater impact. Even if say it increases women's risk by ten percentt and that is statisticlly significat it would likely increase the overall prevalence.
iVillage Member
Registered: 06-24-2008
Mon, 07-27-2009 - 9:10am
If the results are not statistically significant then the differences are due to randomness, they can't be extrapolated to be significant. With larger and larger samples the difference found would head toward zero. From the excerpts posted before I take that to mean the risk is the same for circ as intact - this is still significant to us because demonstrates no medical reason for routine circ.

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iVillage Member
Registered: 04-02-2003
Sun, 08-02-2009 - 2:30pm

"The basic question, why didn't they let the experiment run to completion? Surprisingly, ethical approval for this kind of experiment had been given.