President wields axe to shape cabinet...
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| Tue, 02-24-2004 - 3:14pm |
in own mould.
Just when Russia's presidential election campaign was beginning to look boring and completely predictable, Vladimir Putin retook the initiative on Tuesday with his surprise decision to fire Mikhail Kasyanov as prime minister.
The move prepares the ground for a new administration in the mould of the Russian leader after his almost certain victory on March 14. It will also mark a clear break from his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, to whom Mr Kasyanov was closely allied, and give him a clear mandate for the next four years.
"This is a strong election move that means Putin is making his cabinet part of the campaign," said Vyacheslav Nikonov, a political analyst. "He will present a team rather than just himself, which gives him more legitimacy and makes him more personally responsible. That is a good thing for the country."
Government officials had expressed concerns recently that with an ambitious programme of legislative reform drafted for 2004, a significant cabinet reshuffle would prove highly disruptive and cost them valuable time as new nominees learnt the job. One confided late last year: "Putin should have fired Kasyanov months ago."
By acting now, however, Mr Putin is clearly drawing a line over the past and winning a little extra time for a new team to get to work, with an announcement on his choice of a long-term prime minister expected next week.
His decision may push up still further his record ratings, which are already close to 80 per cent ahead of the March 14 vote. It enables him to distance himself from those on the left who criticised Mr Kasyanov as too liberal, those on the right who accused him of stalling further reform, and those everywhere who saw him as linked to powerful business interests.
Boris Berezovsky, the exiled oligarch, and Leonid Nevzlin, another powerful exiled businessman, criticised the sacking of the prime minister, but their regrets are likely to bolster support for Mr Putin's decision rather than undermine it.
By virtue of his selection on Tuesday as interim prime minister, Viktor Khristenko's own chances of leading the new government in Mr Putin's second term have been enhanced. One of six deputy prime ministers with a list of responsibilities including the sensitive themes of fuel and energy, he is a long-time technocrat who has shown loyalty mixed with extreme caution.
"He is a very shrewd operator who has been able to demonstrate that he knows how to turn the wheels," said one senior official who works with him. "He's a competent technocratic who implements decisions, but I would be amazed if he was appointed," said another.
Another individual tipped as a potential prime minister is Boris Alyoshin, a scientist with links to the left who is currently deputy prime minister in charge of industry, and head of a government commission on "administrative reform" of the civil service. The remaining frontrunners are principally long-time associates of Mr Putin from his native St Petersburg. These include Alexei Kudrin, the deputy prime minister in charge of financial affairs. He has presided over prudent fiscal management in the past four years, but is seen by some insiders as disorganised.
Another potential prime minister is defence minister Sergei Ivanov, a former colleague of Mr Putin in the KGB, the Soviet secret police. Although criticised within the armed forces, he has been entrusted with modernisation of the military, a central priority of the Russian president. His cold war background and lack of economic experience might cause concern for western investors and politicians, however.
That leaves others inside Mr Putin's Kremlin, including Dmitry Kozak, a lawyer recently made deputy head of the administration and his current campaign manager, and Igor Shuvalov, former head of the government civil service and now developing a series of social reforms.
Whatever the final decision, the result is likely to be a government committed to reforms that Dmitry Medvedev, the new head of the presidential administration, recently described as "socially responsible market reform". Mr Kasyanov's departure may make more likely the survival of some other members of the existing cabinet with whom the outgoing prime minister had feuded in recent months, including German Gref, the minister for economic development and trade, who pushed a series of liberal reforms through parliament.
But his removal also eliminates a man who was willing to stand up to Mr Putin, particularly over civil service reform and the investigations into oil group Yukos.
The result may be a new cabinet more clearly aligned to Mr Putin, but one in which loyalty may predominate over healthy and vigorous discussion and debate. The new master of the Kremlin will have no one else to blame if things go wrong.

