New job growth a possibility???
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| Tue, 03-16-2004 - 9:18am |
The Associated Press
Updated: 10:04 a.m. ET March 16, 2004MILWAUKEE - People looking for work this spring could find the strongest U.S. job market in more than three years, even as companies remain reluctant to hire, a new survey shows.
Roughly one in four employers plan to add workers in the second quarter of the year to keep pace with increased demand for their products or services, according to a survey of 16,000 businesses by Manpower Inc., set for release Tuesday.
‘Someone looking for a job no doubt will have an easier time now than in recent memory, than in the past two or three years.’
— Jeffrey Joerres
Manpower CEO, chairman
"Someone looking for a job no doubt will have an easier time now than in recent memory, than in the past two or three years," said Jeffrey Joerres, Manpower’s chief executive officer and chairman. "It’s still going to be difficult in that companies are going to begin this process very cautiously."
Substantial job growth will come if companies fulfill their hiring projections for the quarter, he said.
The survey found 28 percent of companies expect to hire more people in the second quarter, while 6 percent intend to cut jobs. The rest anticipate no change or are uncertain about hiring prospects from April to May.
The second-quarter results, when seasonally adjusted, are the strongest since the first quarter of 2001, soon after the economy officially entered a recession, according to Manpower, a Glendale, Wis.-based staffing company.
The number of companies expecting to hire is nearly twice that of a year ago and marks the third straight quarter of increased hiring projections.
William Mezger, chief economist with the Virginia Employment Commission, said companies cannot continue to rely on increased productivity to satisfy increased demand.
"As time goes on ... employers eventually have got to do some hiring," he said.
The nation has experienced slow employment growth even as the overall economy has grown at a healthy rate. Economists say increased productivity has allowed companies to do more with fewer people.
GUIDE Key economic indicators
Period Latest Prev.
• Consumer Confidence Feb.* 87.3 96.4
• Retail sales Feb.* 0.6% 0.2%
• GDP Q4* 4.0% 8.2%
• ISM Index Feb.* 61.4 63.6
• Factory Orders Jan.* -0.5% 1.8%
• Unemployment Rate Feb. 5.6% 5.6%
• Employment situation Feb.* 21,000 97,000
• Consumer inflation Jan. 1.1% 1.1%
• Housing starts Feb.* 1,903,000 2,067,000
• Home sales Jan.* 7,146,000 7,495,000
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Recent figures
Feb.* 87.3
Jan. 96.4
Dec. 91.7
Nov. 92.5
Oct. 81.7
Sept. 77.0
Aug. 81.7
July 77.0
June 83.5
May 83.6
April 81.0
March 61.4
What is it?
Consumer confidence is considered important because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. The monthly Conference Board survey is one of the two most closely watched indicators of sentiment. Based on a mail-in survey sent to about 5,000 households. Results are converted to an index and expressed in comparison to the 1985 average of 100.
Source: The Conference Board
RETAIL SALES
Recent figures
Feb.* 0.6%
Jan. 0.2%
Dec. 0.4%
Nov. 1.1%
Oct. 0.0%
Sept. -0.3%
Aug. 1.0%
July 1.4%
June 0.9%
May 0.5%
April -0.3%
March 2.3%
What is it?
A broad measure of consumer spending trends. Includes sales of motor vehicles, clothing, food at both grocery stores and restaurants, electronics, building materials drugs and other items. Expressed as a percent change from previous month, adjusted for seasonal variations but not price changes.
Source: Census Bureau
GDP
Recent figures
Q4* 4.0%
Q3 8.2%
Q2 3.3%
Q1 2003 1.4%
Q4 1.4%
Q3 4.0%
Q2 1.3%
Q1 2002 5.0%
Q4 2.7%
Q3 -0.3%
Q2 -1.6%
Q1 2001 -0.6%
What is it?
The gross domestic product is the broadest measure of the economy, comprising the value of all goods and services produced in the United States. It is reported quarterly with frequent revisions. Generally expressed as a percentage change from the previous quarter in "real" or inflation-adjusted terms. Economists presume real GDP is capable of growing at an annual rate of about 3.5 percent over the long term. When GDP declines over a sustained period of time the economy is considered to be in recession.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
ISM INDEX
Recent figures
Feb.* 61.4
Jan. 63.6
Dec. 63.4
Nov. 61.3
Oct. 57.0
Sept. 53.7
Aug. 54.7
July 51.8
June 49.8
May 49.4
April 45.4
March 46.2
What is it?
The first major indicator reported each month, considered a reliable assessment of how the manufacturing sector is performing. Based on a survey of executives done by the Institute for Supply Management, formerly known as the National Association of Purchasing Management. Responses are compiled and reported as an index number. A reading above 50 percent indicates the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below 50 indicates it is shrinking.
Source: Institute for Supply Management
FACTORY ORDERS
Recent figures
Jan.* -0.5%
Dec. 1.8%
Nov. -0.9%
Oct. 2.4%
Sept. 1.4%
Aug. -0.3%
July 2.0%
June 1.9%
May 0.3%
April -2.6%
March 1.5%
Feb. -0.5%
What is it?
Data on new orders for manufactured goods, adjusted for seasonal variation, offer a good indicator of the manufacturing sector's health, closely watched because it is the most volatile part of the economy. Expressed as percent change from previous month.
Source: Census Bureau.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Recent figures
Feb. 5.6%
Jan. 5.6%
Dec. 5.7%
Nov. 5.9%
Oct. 6.0%
Sept. 6.1%
Aug. 6.1%
July 6.2%
June 6.3%
May 6.1%
April 6.0%
March 5.8%
What is it?
One of the best known and most politically powerful economic indicators, the rate is calculated from a monthly survey among a sample of about 60,000 households. The rate is adjusted for seasonal variations, but unlike most economic statistics it is never revised.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
EMPLOYMENT SITUATION
Recent figures
Feb.* 21,000
Jan. 97,000
Dec. 8,000
Nov. 83,000
Oct. 88,000
Sept. 67,000
Aug. -25,000
July -45,000
June -14,000
May -28,000
April -20,000
March -110,000
What is it?
Represents the month-to-month change in jobs on payrolls of the nation's business, government and non-profit establishments. Generally considered a more accurate indicator of labor market health than the unemployment rate. Analysts estimate the economy should add about 150,000 jobs monthly to keep up with the nation's growing work force. Based on a sample of 300,000 establishments employing nearly a third of the nation's workers, the figure is adjusted for seasonal variations and frequently revised.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
CONSUMER INFLATION
Recent figures
Jan. 1.1%
Dec. 1.1%
Nov. 1.1%
Oct. 1.3%
Sept. 1.2%
Aug. 1.3%
July 1.5%
June 1.5%
May 1.6%
April 1.5%
March 1.7%
Feb. 1.7%
What is it?
The most widely known and used measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index is based on the price of a "basket"of goods including food, beverages, fuel, medical care and clothing. Value refers to year-over-year change in "core" prices, excluding volatile food and energy categories.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
HOUSING STARTS
(seasonally adjusted annual rate)
Recent figures
Feb.* 1,903,000
Dec. 2,067,000
Nov. 2,054,000
Oct. 1,977,000
Sept. 1,931,000
Aug. 1,831,000
July 1,890,000
June 1,844,000
May 1,745,000
April 1,627,000
March 1,742,000
Feb. 1,640,000
What is it?
A good indicator to assess demand for housing and construction industry health. Represents the number of new residential buildings, including single-family and multifamily homes, where construction was started. Expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Construction was started on 1.7 million new residential structures in 2002, the highest level since 1986.
Source: Census Bureau.
HOME SALES
(seasonally adjusted annual rate)
Recent figures
Jan.* 7,146,000
Dec. 7,495,000
Nov. 7,241,000
Oct. 7,499,000
Sept. 7,809,000
Aug. 7,650,000
July 7,275,000
June 7,030,000
May 6,931,000
April 6,854,000
March 6,538,000
Feb. 6,795,000
What is it?
One of the bright spots of the economy in recent years, driven in part by historically low mortgage rates. Figure represents the sum of new and existing single-family home sales, expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate.
Sources: National Association of Realtors, Census Bureau
Last month the economy added just 21,000 jobs, with much of the new hiring by government, according to the Labor Department. That left the unemployment rate stuck at 5.6 percent in February.
According to the Manpower survey, companies in all regions of the country expect stronger job prospects in the second quarter. Employers in the South expect the most activity, while the Northeast expects the least.
All 10 industries surveyed, including hard-hit manufacturers, also are more optimistic about hiring in the second quarter than they were last quarter and a year ago.
Terry Ludeman, a labor economist with the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development, said he hasn’t seen much increase in manufacturing jobs in the Midwest but is moderately optimistic that could change.
"It’s one of the industries that we’ve held our breath on, because we’re not seeing a terrific recovery," he said.

I think the one thing that this "jobless recovery" has proven is that "trickle down economics" was NEVER based in economics and was never the right way to go.
James
janderson_ny@yahoo.com
CL Ask A Guy
Yes it would be nice to see more well paying jobs available. There has to be better prospects for work in the future..
The unemployment rate of 5.6% only applies to those receiving unemployment bene's. What about the real #'s of the unemployed?
Should happen..............
>"Analysts estimate the economy should add about 150,000 jobs monthly to keep up with the nation's growing work force."<
Did happen.............
>"Last month the economy added just 21,000 jobs, with much of the new hiring by government, according to the Labor Department. That left the unemployment rate stuck at 5.6 percent in February. "<
Debt: Is this really a good indication of consumer confidence?
Economists Say Increase in U.S. Consumer Debt Helped Economy Weather Recession.
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/business/national/8143623.htm
Despite the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and two subsequent wars, despite a recession in 2001 and the resulting loss of 716,000 jobs, U.S. consumers haven't stopped spending and piling on debt.
In fact, consumers have increased spending for 48 quarters straight, an incredible streak.
That long run has been fueled, in part, with $2 trillion in credit-card, auto and consumer debt, with another $7 trillion in home mortgages.
Since 1998, consumer debt, not counting mortgages, has increased 29.8 percent. The disposable income available to service that debt has risen only 14.5 percent, in contrast.
"Something has to give," said Michael Schwartz, a financial adviser in Greenwood Village who helps the debt-stressed rebuild their financial lives.
Some stresses are apparent:
--College graduates are leaving school with an average of $1,208 in credit-card debt on top of thousands of dollars in school loans.
--Denver metro home foreclosures soared 44 percent last year, reaching their highest levels in 13 years.
--Colorado led the country in growth of bankruptcy filings last year, with a record 25,776 Coloradans resorting to the desperate measure.
But all the borrowing and spending has an upside. The U.S. economy remains the strongest in the world, largely based on free-market principles, easy access to credit and robust consumer spending.
The 2001 recession, one of the mildest on record, would have been much worse without consumers staying in the game. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan recently argued that the monthly financial obligations of U.S. consumers, fairly flat at 18.32 percent of disposable income, remain manageable.
"Over the past two years, significant increases in the value of real estate assets have, for some households, mitigated stock-market losses and supported consumption," Greenspan said.
But debt, even if it doesn't lead to dire consequences, exacts a price.
"People are living beyond their means in many ways," said Gene Lanzoni, vice president of market research with MetLife in Bridgewater, N.J.
Among households making less than $30,000 a year, 87 percent described themselves as living paycheck to paycheck, according to a MetLife survey of 728 people across the country. But perhaps more remarkably, 30 percent of families making $100,000 or more a year put themselves in the same boat.
"If you are living on the edge with debt and low liquidity, any change in the economy or jobs makes you vulnerable," said local financial adviser Joseph Janiczek. "What we are really talking about is the financial vulnerability of people."
Instant Gratification Key Factor in Rise of U.S. Consumer Debt, Say Analysts.
Article..........
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/business/national/8143631.htm
>"This economy is driven by spending, which you can increase by giving money to the Lower & Middle Class MUCH faster than giving money to the elete 1% of society. "<
I agree. An increase in minimum wage would help. SS not taken out until $15-20K had been earned & SS taken out of earning until $100K, would balance that.
I think the better way to go is to cut the FICA tax to a certain percentage, and then do away with the ceiling at which you must pay FICA until. That way it is a tax cut for everyone making less than say....$100,000......breaks even for those between $100,000 and $175,000. and is a slight increase for those above $175,000. I bet this would also take care of the insolvency issue for SS. I would have to see all of the numbers to come up with percentages however.
>>>"Analysts estimate the economy should add about 150,000 jobs monthly to keep up with the nation's growing work force."<
How can an analyst gauge how many jobs will be created? Is it purely historical?
I am less for an increase in the minimum wage and much more for setting a floor where the first X money is not taxed for FICA.
James
janderson_ny@yahoo.com
CL Ask A Guy
How can an analyst gauge how many jobs will be created?>>
The analysts are not estimating "how many jobs WILL BE created" they are talking about the number of jobs needed to keep up with a growing work force.
Here's how they arrive at the number--although in this case it is 137,000.
"The working-age population is growing by 1.2% a year. That reflects both the large numbers of young people who are reaching working age and the continuing net immigration. Had payroll jobs kept up with working-age population growth since March 2001, the economy would be adding 137,000 new jobs each month. Every month that payroll jobs grow by fewer than 137,000, the jobs gap widens. In the past six months, job growth has averaged only 61,000, with February 2004 showing a gain of just 21,000 new jobs (see JobWatch.org for a complete analysis of the February employment numbers). As a result, the jobs gap keeps widening"
http://www.epinet.org/content.cfm/webfeatures_snapshots