The Spring Offensive

iVillage Member
Registered: 04-16-2003
The Spring Offensive
23
Wed, 03-17-2004 - 1:48pm
Excerpts from three articles by same writer.

How the US set Pakistan aflame

By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - The flames of war have spread into Pakistan, with fierce fighting between government forces and tribespeople in volatile South Waziristan agency near the Afghanistan border, and the fire threatens to engulf neighboring areas. The spark was provided by United States pressure on the government of President General Pervez Musharraf to help in Washington's "war on terror", but ironically, the only gainer will be the anti-US Afghan resistance.

The fighting erupted as US-led forces began a spring offensive to eradicate Taliban and al-Qaeda remnants in Afganistan. The US plan depends on crucial support from Pakistan to keep a lid on its border region which is notorious for supporting and sheltering the Afghan resistance. Now the Pakistani military is fighting its own citizens there, and US Secretary of State Colin Powell, who timed a visit to Pakistan to coincide with the launch of the offensive and shore up support, will return home with the news that the situation is getting ever more out of hand.

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The most immediate threat to Pakistan's stability is within the Pakistani army, where a strong contingency rejects Musharraf and his accommodation of the US. This may push political parties like Jamaat-i-Islami to stage strong demonstrations of power in an effort to force Musharraf to step down.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/FC18Df01.html

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US's foes set to pounce

By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - While the United States-led coalition makes its latest attempt to round up Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters on the Pakistan-Afghan border, new evidence is reinforcing the certainty that the Afghan resistance isn't just sitting around waiting to get caught, and nor is the International Islamic Front going to relent in its determination to wreak havoc on the US and its allies elsewhere.

High-level sources tell Asia Times Online the Afghan resistance movement and the International Islamic Front - a loose umbrella for a network of cells dedicated to jihad against America - have finalized plans to enter a decisive phase of their offensive, aimed at forcing the US-led coalition out of Afghanistan by inflicting injuries on the interests of the US and its allies both on and off the battlefield.

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On the Afghan-Pakistan front

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The global plan of attack

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/FC17Df03.html

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Deathly silence descends on South Waziristan

By Syed Saleem Shahzad



(See also US sets Pakistan aflame)

KARACHI - Villagers in Pakistan's South Waziristan agency have left their homes, fearing the United States will soon begin dropping bombs, while aircraft from the Afghan side of the border fly overhead. On the ground, burnt-out military vehicles litter the landscape. The fighting has stopped and an eerie silence prevails over the area, said Zafar, a resident of Wana who gave an eyewitness account to Asia Times Online from Watchadana, which borders Afghanistan.

But the present calm is just the beginning of a new storm. Tuesday's deadly clash between Pakistani forces and local tribespeople marks the first time in the last several operations, when Pakistani troops came down forcefully in South Waziristan, that they have been humiliated by the tribals - along with the Islamic militants who have already converged in the area and view the situation as a holy war. South Waziristan is one of seven federally administered tribal areas where fiercely independent tribes have been allowed to govern their own affairs. Al-Qaeda and the Taliban enjoy widespread popular support in the mountainous and isolated border areas, the poorest and most religiously conservative parts of Pakistan.

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The manner in which Pakistan's armed forces disowned both the operation and the level of the insurgency shows the military is fully aware that the situation is out of control. But at the same time , these denials also reflect that the armed forces do not want to take the blame for a clash between Pakistani forces and Pakistani citizens in which both sustained casualties - especially when they are fighting a war for somebody else on Pakistani soil. The situation clearly hints the future course of action - and who is now really dominating the Pakistani Army: the US.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/FC18Df08.html



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iVillage Member
Registered: 04-16-2003
Wed, 03-17-2004 - 2:50pm
Here's how the incident is reported in US papers.

"Everybody reports that Pakistani troops operating near the border with Afghanistan got into a firefight with Islamic militants. According to Pakistani officials, at least eight soldiers were killed along with an estimated 24 militants. While most of the papers leave it at that, the NYT digs deeper and suggests things were much worse than the official story, with 18 soldiers missing. According to the Times, there was a six-hour fight after troops tried to arrest some suspected al-Qaida men and instead found themselves surrounded by about 500 well-organized militants. "Their level of training and resilience has surprised us all," said one local official. Compare that to the near-press-release coverage in the Post's wire story. Too bad the Times didn't even tease this story on Page One."

http://slate.msn.com/id/2097270/

iVillage Member
Registered: 04-16-2003
Thu, 03-18-2004 - 11:34am
Here's an update on our effort to get OBL.

It's only a matter of time before further deadly clashes take place between Pakistani forces and tribespeople, with troops now mobilizing for a "full force" operation. Meanwhile, the fierce fighting which took place on Tuesday has all but eradicated what little support the United States had from anti-Taliban tribespeople in its "war on terror". - Syed Saleem

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/FC19Df01.html

iVillage Member
Registered: 03-18-2000
Thu, 03-18-2004 - 12:31pm

>"There are already 50,000 Afghan refugees living in South Waziristan - some of whom took refuge in Pakistan when the former USSR attacked Afganistan. It is difficult to tell the rebel Afghans from the non-rebel Afghans, as both come from the same areas, like Ghazni and Argon."<


Running & hiding from Russians, the Taliban, now the US.


How are US troops going to operate in these areas without inside knowledge of these various tribes? What a mess!

cl-Libraone~

 


Photobucket&nbs

iVillage Member
Registered: 04-16-2003
Thu, 03-18-2004 - 5:03pm
<>

The US forces are not doing the fighting at the present. It is Pakastani troops that are fighting. CNN has been doing extensive reporting on this battle, but it is difficult to tell how much is spin. I know that this area has been building up for almost a year, and the fighting is fierce.

iVillage Member
Registered: 03-18-2000
Thu, 03-18-2004 - 10:34pm

Don't have a link but I've read that US special forces have been going across the border into Pakistan.


I watched CNN for awhile early this evening, so much speculation & little news.

cl-Libraone~

 


Photobucket&nbs

iVillage Member
Registered: 04-16-2003
Fri, 03-19-2004 - 9:50am
Your right, speculaltion on CNN. It does get tiring. Here's an update from Asia News, it is at least another piece in the puzzle that is evolving. What started out as a hunt for OBL may be leading to a Pakistani civil war. I use the term civil loosely since the tribal lands are autonomous. The following paragraph answers your question on what happens to Americans operating in the area.

"One crosses the first mountain and sees a similar mountain emerge and after crossing another mountain he feels a spin in his head and thinks the whole world in this area is the same and leads the way nowhere."

Afghan offensive: Grand plans hit rugged reality

By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - The plan to eradicate the Afghan resistance was straightforward: US-led coalition forces would drive from inside Afghanistan into the last real sanctuary of the insurgents, and meet the Pakistani military driving from the opposite direction. There would then be no safe place left to hide for the Taliban and al-Qaeda remnants, or, presumably, for Osama bin Laden himself. The plan's implementation began with the launch of operation "Mountain Storm" around March 15.

But the insurgents have a plan of their own, which they have revealed to Asia Times Online. Conceived by foreign resistance fighters of Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Arab origin, it is a classic guerrilla stratagem that involves enmeshing the mighty military forces of the United States and its allies in numerous local conflicts, diverting them from their real goal and dissipating their strength.

The insurgents' plan, too, has been put into effect, and the fierce fighting in Pakistan's tribal agency of South Waziristan last Tuesday, when resistance fighters and their tribal sympathizers took on the Pakistani military and routed it, was an early manifestation. Now Pakistan must quell its own rebel tribespeople before it continues to help the US with Mountain Storm. Indeed, Pakistan is attempting just that, on Thursday launching a "full force" operation in South Waziristan, using artillery and helicopter gunships. At the same time, tribal opposition to the Pakistani military has spread to North Waziristan - all according to plan, it seems.

In an exclusive meeting with Asia Times Online, a prominent planner of the Afghan resistance spelled out the strategy. Pointing to a hand-drawn map, the insurgent indicated an area he called "Shawal". Technically speaking, "Shawal" falls on the Afghan side of the Durand Line that divides Pakistan and Afghanistan. (Editor's note: The border area inside North Waziristan is also called Shawal.) In reality, "Shawal" is a no-man's land, a place no one would want to go to unless he were as tough as the local tribespeople, a guerrilla fighter taking on the US, or, perhaps, Osama bin Laden. Shawal is a deep and most dangerous maze. The insurgent described it thus:

"One crosses the first mountain and sees a similar mountain emerge and after crossing another mountain he feels a spin in his head and thinks the whole world in this area is the same and leads the way nowhere."

This is the last safe haven for the Afghan resistance, from which they launch attacks on coalition forces and the Afghan government, and to which they return to regroup and receive sustenance from the locals. And this is the kind of terrain the US and its allies will encounter in their drive to occupy "Shawal" whether they come in from the Afghan side via Bermal, or from the Pakistan side via South or North Waziristan.

Those who are masters of this maze can raid the Afghan provinces of Ghazni, Paktia, and Paktika. The only masters are people of the Data Khail and Zaka Khail tribes and the insurgents who base themselves there.

The Data Khail and Zaka Khail have a long history of defiance and have never capitulated to any intruder. The tribesmen are as tough as the terrain, and they have been known for centuries for their strong bonds of loyalty, such that "even an enemy who requests shelter would be given it". These two tribes are now the protectors of the Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters based in "Shawal". By occupying the area, the US hopes to deprive the insurgents of the tribes' crucial support. Forced to flee, the insurgents would eventually fall into the hands of the United States' local proxy networks of anti-Taliban tribes and warlords. Such is the plan.

In response, the insurgents have decided that instead of avoiding confrontation with the coalition forces as they have previously, they will meet them head-on in this unforgiving landscape, while diverting their attention with attacks and harassment in other areas.

The Pakistanis, under intense US pressure to help out, and as of this week's visit by Secretary of State Colin Powell the recipients of even more US military largess (see Pakistan as key non-NATO ally), are already bogged down in South Waziristan. Sources in Wana, headquarters of South Waziristan agency, tell Asia Times Online that a full brigade of the Pakistani army, along with paramilitary troops and backed by artillery, helicopters and two other aircraft, is now attacking tribal positions in Kaloo Shah, Sheen Warsak and Azam Warsak. Sources say that the targeted Wazir tribes have asked neighboring tribes to join the fray.

And as predicted by Asia Times Online (How the US set Pakistan aflame, March 18), the South Waziristan fighting has spread to other areas. According to latest information, an attack on Pakistani troops in North Waziristan has killed a major and several soldiers. The incident, near the "Shawal" area, means the Pakistani army has a new, simultaneous problem to deal with, and their advance has been stopped. The operation that began as a hunt for Osama bin Laden has already degenerated into sideshows against rebel Pakistani tribespeople.

In Afghanistan, US-led forces can expect increasing hit-and-run attacks by local Taliban, who will then melt back into the local population. While the troops engage in house-to-house searches for the perpetrators, the drive for "Shawal" is dissipated and slowed.

It seems the insurgents' plan is already paying off. How they go about building on their initial success will become clear in the coming weeks.

(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/FC20Df02.html

iVillage Member
Registered: 03-26-2003
Fri, 03-19-2004 - 10:21am
I will tell you one thing....I am getting tired of hearing on ALL the news stations how the Pakistani's THINK they have Al-Zawahiri (sp?) cornered.....either you do, or you dont......which one is it?

The news has been the same for the past 24 hours....nothing new???

iVillage Member
Registered: 04-16-2003
Fri, 03-19-2004 - 11:38am
<>

Quite simply the Pakistanis surmise that they have a high level operative because of the fiercness of the fighting. I don't happen to believe this is the only explanation. As far as the news reports--I agree--it is a bit tiring. But when you have nothing new to report you keep reporting the same ole thing.

iVillage Member
Registered: 03-26-2003
Fri, 03-19-2004 - 1:43pm
I did hear one interesting theory....the reason that the Pakistani's are so certain that they have this al Zawahiri guy surrounded is that because they have killed so many people, but have not been able to identify the bodies due to the continuation in fighting, they dont know if he is still alive or dead.....it is interesting, but still just a theory.

Personally I hope they do catch him alive.

iVillage Member
Registered: 04-16-2003
Tue, 03-23-2004 - 11:45am
UPDATE

Musharraf's version of "wag the dog" - call it "wag the terrorist" - may have served to divert world attention from the tragedy in Iraq to the real "war on terror". It was great public relations for Washington, as the hunt for the invisible "high value target" buried the fact that two Iraqi journalists working for the al-Arabiya network were killed by the US military; it buried Amnesty International reminding everyone that 10,000 Iraqi civilians have died because of the war; and it buried weekend protests against the war in the US and Western Europe.

The al-Zawahiri fiasco

By Pepe Escobar

It featured all the trappings of a glorified video game. Thousands of Pakistani army and paramilitary troops played the hammer. Hundreds of US troops and Special Forces, plus the elite commando 121, were ready to play the anvil across the border in Afghanistan. What was supposed to be smashed in between was "high-value target" Ayman al-Zawahiri, as Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf enthusiastically bragged - with no hard evidence - to an eager CNN last Thursday. But what happened to this gigantic piece of psy-ops? Nothing. And for a very simple reason: al-Qaeda's brain and Osama bin Laden's deputy was never there in the first place. And even if he was, as Taliban-connected sources in Peshawar told Asia Times Online, he would choose to die as a martyr rather than be captured and paraded as a US trophy.

It now appears that world public opinion fell victim to a Musharraf-inspired web of disinformation. In the early stages of the battle west of Wana in South Waziristan, Taliban spokesman Abdul Samad, speaking by satellite telephone from Kandahar province in Afghanistan, was quick to say that talk of al-Zawahiri being cornered was "just propaganda by the US coalition and by the Pakistani army to weaken Taliban morale". Subsequently, Peshawar sources were quoting al-Qaeda operatives from inside Saudi Arabia as saying that both bin Laden and al-Zawahiri had left this part of the tribal areas as early as January.

On the Afghan side, General Atiquallah Ludin at the Defense Ministry in Kabul was saying that "al-Qaeda cannot escape or enter Afghan soil". But by this time the majority of the mujahideen previously based in South Waziristan had already managed to cross back to Paktika province in Afghanistan - mostly to areas around Urgun, Barmal and Gayan. This rugged, mountainous territory is quintessentially Taliban. Many local Pashtun tribals don't even know who (Afghan president) Hamid Karzai is.

It would have been almost impossible for the mujahideen to cross to Paktika after the start of operation "hammer and anvil". By last Saturday, Mohammed Gaus, district mayor of Orgun - where the Americans keep a base - was saying that "the Pakistanis seem to have closed the border". The Americans have a main base in the village of Shkin, in Paktika, less than 25 kilometers to the west of the battleground cordoned off by the Pakistani army in South Waziristan. This base accommodates not only the US Army, but contingents of the Central Intelligence Agency and Special Forces, as well as members of commando 121 itself (the "anvil" side). On the "hammer" side, the Americans supply the Pakistani army with satellite photos, intelligence collected by drones and listening stations, and have installed electronic sensors and radars along the border.

All the time the Pakistani government and army were insisting that the US did not put any pressure on them to launch operation hammer and anvil. So according to military spokesman Major General Sultan, it was "just a coincidence" that US Secretary of State Colin Powell was in Islamabad at the height of the operation, and that Pakistan was being rewarded with the status of major non-North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally.

High-value target

Musharraf swore that his commanders told him a "high-value target" was in the South Waziristan tribal area, based on American intelligence. Washington believed it, quoting Pakistani intelligence. In the end, it was local intelligence that revealed that the target may in fact be Tahir Yuldash, who took control of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan after its leader Juma Namangani was killed by American bombing in November 2001 in Afghanistan.

Yuldash may be the man in charge of coordinating all Central Asian al-Qaeda and/or affiliated jihadis: Uzbeks, Tajiks, Uighurs from China's Xinjiang and Chechens. He is suspected of being holed up in South Waziristan ever since he escaped the American bombing of Tora Bora in December 2001. Alongside him there is one Danyar, a Chechen commander, and of course hundreds of Pashtun tribals.

Sources in Peshawar told Asia Times Online that the "high value target" actually managed to escape in the early stages of the battle last week in a black, bullet-proof Toyota Land Cruiser with tinted windows from a fortress-cum-farmhouse right in the middle of the battlefield, in the village of Kolosha. These sources also confirm the Taliban claim that al-Zawahiri may have left South Waziristan as early as January and no later than early February, when word was rife all over the tribal areas about the upcoming spring offensive.

The connection in Wana of Cobra helicopters shooting missiles and a local hospital receiving a stream of civilian victims, including women and children, inevitably led the coalition of six religious parties, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, which won last year's elections in the tribal areas, to furiously accuse the Musharraf government. Many people believe that the operation has been undertaken at the insistence of the US, and as such it is tearing national unity apart. Maulana Fazlur Rahman, the firebrand leader of the Jamiat Ulema Islam (JUI), said this would lead to "more terrorism in reaction to the persecution of innocent civilians". And Mufti Nizamuddin Shamzai, who directs one of the most important madrassas (religious schools) in Karachi and who is close to the Taliban, added that "it will only create more hatred in the country, and it won't solve the problem of terrorism".

The way in which Islamabad has alienated the Pashtun tribals suggests that the whole operation may end up as a complete fiasco. The Pakistanis had to arrest the wives of some mujahideen to extract some kind of intelligence. Peshawar sources tell Asia Times Online that average Pashtun tribals have been the main victims all along. Local trucks and minibuses have been nowhere to be seen for days. The roads are sealed. Electricity has been cut off. Families fled heavy bombing of "strategic targets" - on foot for dozens of kilometers. Villagers were hit by mortar fire. The Pakistani army used 15 Cobra helicopters, two F-17 fighters and dozens of artillery batteries. Contrary to Islamabad's version, the mujahideen were not cornered in one area - but in eight villages around the cities of Wana and Azam Warsak: Kluusha, Karzi Kot, Klotay, Gua Khua, Zera Lead, Sarahgor, Sesion Warzak and Wazagonday.

Former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, chairperson of the Pakistan People's Party, grumbled that elected tribal leaders were not consulted about an operation which had been planned for three months: "Every high value target was allowed to escape months in advance while the tribal population was used as a sacrificial lamb to satisfy the power lust of the regime." Benazir added that "even the international media were duped into believing that al-Qaeda number two Ayman al-Zawahiri was besieged, when in fact Chechen and Uzbek fighters were said to be holed in the area".

The roughly 100 "suspects" captured so far by thousands of Pakistani troops amount to an overwhelming majority of Pashtun tribesmen - with a few low-ranking Chechens and Uzbek fighters and certainly no high-value Arab jihadis thrown in the mix. Word in Peshawar is that the Pashtun fighters and jihadis had much better intelligence than the Pakistani military. Peshawar sources estimate that less than 10 jihadis were killed, as opposed to almost 70 Pakistani soldiers and paramilitary troops.

A graphic sign of failure is that Islamabad was actually forced to negotiate after a de facto ceasefire. Three-hundred to 500 mostly Pashtun tribals, along with some low-level jihadis and Taliban, do remain surrounded. Islamabad's line is that tribes protecting "foreign terrorists" have no option but to surrender them, or else die fighting. Coincidentally, General John Abizaid, head of the US Central Command, happens to be in Islamabad at the moment on a semi-secret visit.

Any remaining "high value target" in Wana may have escaped by now - in a scheme not totally dissimilar to bin Laden's spectacular escape from Tora Bora in December 2001. At that time, hundreds of Arab and Chechen mujahideen put up very strong resistance in the frontline, while the "Sheikh" escaped to the Pakistani tribal areas using, among other means, a few tunnels. So it's no surprise that the Pakistanis have now also "discovered" a two kilometer long tunnel under the houses of the most-wanted tribal, Nek Muhammad. The tunnel may be instrumental in covering the Pakistani army's backs.

An occupation army

As Islamabad has declared the tribal areas a no-go area for the foreign press - unless in short, highly-choreographed escorted tours - it's crucial to get a feeling of the terrain. There's no "border" to speak of between both Waziristan tribal agencies, North and South, and the Afghan province of Paktika. During the anti-Soviet jihad in the 1980s, Waziristan was a prime mujahideen base. Afghan jihadis married locally and became residents, along with their families. During the Afghan war in 2001, al-Qaeda jihadis also took local Pashtun wives. This means that every mujahideen - Arab, Afghan and Arab-Afghan - enjoys popular support.

As in most latitudes in the tribal areas, most people carry a tribal-made Kalashnikov and have been raised in madrassas maintained by the JUI. Musharraf may now call them terrorists, but the fact remains that every mujahideen is and will be respectfully regarded by the locals as a soldier of Islam. Moreover, al-Qaeda jihadis who settled in Waziristan have managed to seduce tribals young and old alike with an irresistible deluge of Pakistani rupees, weapons and Toyota Land Cruisers.

The Pakistani army is regarded as an occupation army. No wonder: it entered Waziristan for the first time in history, in the summer of 2002. These Pakistani soldiers are mostly Punjabi. They don't speak Pashto and don't know anything about the complex Pashtun tribal code. In light of all this, the presence of the Pakistani army in these tribal areas in the name of the "war on terror" cannot but be regarded as an American intervention. These tribes have never been subdued. They may even spell Musharraf's doom.

What disappeared from the news

Musharraf's version of "wag the dog" - call it "wag the terrorist" - may have served to divert world attention from the tragedy in Iraq to the real "war on terror". It was great public relations for Washington, as the hunt for the invisible "high value target" buried the fact that two Iraqi journalists working for the al-Arabiya network were killed by the US military; it buried Amnesty International reminding everyone that 10,000 Iraqi civilians have died because of the war; and it buried weekend protests against the war in the US and Western Europe.

Musharraf himself has a lot to answer for. Why did his government and the Pakistani army not arrest al-Qaeda jihadis after Tora Bora in December 2001, when everybody knew they were in the tribal areas? It could have been only a matter of military incompetence. But the word in Peshawar is different: then, this was part of an American-organized covert ops destined to keep the al-Qaeda leadership alive, the main reason for the "war on terror". Today, the "war on terror" still has no credibility in these parts because it allows civilians to be terrorized - just as has happened in Wana.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/FC24Df05.html

What has not made the news here is the damage done to the Pakistani/Indian peace accord.

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