The Spring Offensive
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| Wed, 03-17-2004 - 1:48pm |
How the US set Pakistan aflame
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - The flames of war have spread into Pakistan, with fierce fighting between government forces and tribespeople in volatile South Waziristan agency near the Afghanistan border, and the fire threatens to engulf neighboring areas. The spark was provided by United States pressure on the government of President General Pervez Musharraf to help in Washington's "war on terror", but ironically, the only gainer will be the anti-US Afghan resistance.
The fighting erupted as US-led forces began a spring offensive to eradicate Taliban and al-Qaeda remnants in Afganistan. The US plan depends on crucial support from Pakistan to keep a lid on its border region which is notorious for supporting and sheltering the Afghan resistance. Now the Pakistani military is fighting its own citizens there, and US Secretary of State Colin Powell, who timed a visit to Pakistan to coincide with the launch of the offensive and shore up support, will return home with the news that the situation is getting ever more out of hand.
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The most immediate threat to Pakistan's stability is within the Pakistani army, where a strong contingency rejects Musharraf and his accommodation of the US. This may push political parties like Jamaat-i-Islami to stage strong demonstrations of power in an effort to force Musharraf to step down.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/FC18Df01.html
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US's foes set to pounce
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - While the United States-led coalition makes its latest attempt to round up Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters on the Pakistan-Afghan border, new evidence is reinforcing the certainty that the Afghan resistance isn't just sitting around waiting to get caught, and nor is the International Islamic Front going to relent in its determination to wreak havoc on the US and its allies elsewhere.
High-level sources tell Asia Times Online the Afghan resistance movement and the International Islamic Front - a loose umbrella for a network of cells dedicated to jihad against America - have finalized plans to enter a decisive phase of their offensive, aimed at forcing the US-led coalition out of Afghanistan by inflicting injuries on the interests of the US and its allies both on and off the battlefield.
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On the Afghan-Pakistan front
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The global plan of attack
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/FC17Df03.html
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Deathly silence descends on South Waziristan
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
(See also US sets Pakistan aflame)
KARACHI - Villagers in Pakistan's South Waziristan agency have left their homes, fearing the United States will soon begin dropping bombs, while aircraft from the Afghan side of the border fly overhead. On the ground, burnt-out military vehicles litter the landscape. The fighting has stopped and an eerie silence prevails over the area, said Zafar, a resident of Wana who gave an eyewitness account to Asia Times Online from Watchadana, which borders Afghanistan.
But the present calm is just the beginning of a new storm. Tuesday's deadly clash between Pakistani forces and local tribespeople marks the first time in the last several operations, when Pakistani troops came down forcefully in South Waziristan, that they have been humiliated by the tribals - along with the Islamic militants who have already converged in the area and view the situation as a holy war. South Waziristan is one of seven federally administered tribal areas where fiercely independent tribes have been allowed to govern their own affairs. Al-Qaeda and the Taliban enjoy widespread popular support in the mountainous and isolated border areas, the poorest and most religiously conservative parts of Pakistan.
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The manner in which Pakistan's armed forces disowned both the operation and the level of the insurgency shows the military is fully aware that the situation is out of control. But at the same time , these denials also reflect that the armed forces do not want to take the blame for a clash between Pakistani forces and Pakistani citizens in which both sustained casualties - especially when they are fighting a war for somebody else on Pakistani soil. The situation clearly hints the future course of action - and who is now really dominating the Pakistani Army: the US.

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I have been watching the news every night after work, but nobody have given any updates. Is the fighting still going on?
I know they found the tunnels, but no further information beyond that.
This post may not answer your questions, but it will explain what's going on in Pakistan.
A Hamas blow for Pakistan
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - The killing on Monday of Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin in an Israeli helicopter-launched rocket attack in Gaza City certainly eliminates one of Tel Aviv's key opponents, but the ramifications of the talisman resistance figure's death are already being felt in Pakistan, where unrest in the tribal areas continues unabated.
News of Yassin's death spread like wildfire across Pakistan, including the tribal areas on the border with Afghanistan where thousands of Pakistan troops have encountered fierce resistance from tribal fighters as they attempt to track down al-Qaeda fugitives and Afghan resistance members.
The Jamaat-i-Islami Pakistan, an influential religious political party, was quick to organize massive demonstrations all over the country. Although these were held to condemn "Israeli brutality", most of the speakers focussed on the goings-on in the tribal areas, where they are highly critical of the military's intervention in the semi-autonomous region, and of the United States' "meddling" in the region.
Despite attempts by the Pakistan military to implement a ceasefire so that tribal leaders can negotiate the surrender of suspected al-Qaeda members, on Monday night a convoy of Pakistani troops comprising 30 vehicles, which was on its way to reinforce positions in South Waziristan, was ambushed. An eye witness told Asia Times Online by telephone that six cars were destroyed and that the casualties "were not less than 50". When contacted by Asia Times Online, Major General Shaukat Sultan, the director general of Inter-Services Public Relations of the Pakistan army, confirmed the incident, but refused to give any details concerning casualties.
The ambush indicates that the tribals are well informed of the movements of the army, which is rushing extra troops into the area, as well as heavy artillery. These preparations reflect that in the coming days more fighting can be expected.
The resolve of the tribals to resist the intervention of the army into their region has been strengthened by Sunday's ruling by 70 religious clerics that resistance to the army has now turned into a jihad (a struggle to defend the faith). Copies of the ruling have been distributed in mosques all over North-West Frontier Province as well as in cities in Punjab and Sindh provinces.
Concern in Islamabad
The situation is not tense in the tribal areas alone. In the capital Islamabad, decision makers have been taken by surprise by the extent of the resistance, yet they are in an unenviable position.
On the one hand the Pakistan leadership has the United States sword dangling over its head, with demands that all militants (al-Qaeda, Taliban, Afghan resistance) be driven out of the tribal areas, and preferably into the waiting arms of the US army across the border.
On the other hand, the resistance shows no sign of easing, and if the Pakistan army is defeated, the anti-President General Pervez Musharraf lobby in the army will certainly take full advantage of the situation. Important sections of the army are known to oppose intervention in the tribal areas, and to harbor strong sympathies for the Taliban, which Pakistan supported until persuaded to do an about-turn by the US after September 11 when Washington launched its global "war on terror".
Ironically then, like the hammer and anvil operation that was designed to trap militants between the Pakistan army on one side of the border and US troops on the other, it is the Pakistan government that now finds itself caught between the devil and the deep blue sea.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/FC24Df01.html
Pakistan's flames of war spread
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - Amid reports of an escalation of resistance and even foreign complicity, fighting continues between the army and suspected al-Qaeda militants in Pakistan's tribal region of South Waziristan on the border with Afghanistan.
Tribal elders had earlier tried to talk foreign militants and their local supporters into surrendering during a break in the fighting that began in earnest last week. But the army apparently was not prepared to wait any longer, and nor were their targets, as overnight reports filtered in of attacks on military bases in other parts of the troubled region, and even a rocket attack on Peshawar, the capital of North West Frontier Province.
More disturbingly, there have been confirmed reports of dissent among the ranks of the Pakistani para-military troops and the army sent into the semi-autonomous region to flush out al-Qaeda and Afghan resistance suspects. More than 5,000 forces have been deployed in the region.
At the same time, talking to Asia Times Online, a high-level army officer, speaking on condition of anonymity, claimed that India's Research and Analysis Wing as well as the Northern Alliance - which makes up most of the government in Afghanistan - were attempting to exploit the volatile situation in the tribal areas to foment further unrest. "Yes, there are reports of infiltration from across the border and there is a fear that the Afghan Northern Alliance and Indian intelligence will take advantage of the situation and try their level best to further deteriorate the situation," he said.
On Tuesday, Rehmatullah Wazir, the assistant political agent of South Waziristan, said that army reinforcements had reached Wana in South Waziristan as rebel tribesmen had shown no flexibility in refusing to hand over suspects. "The jirga turned out to be ineffective and only succeeded in speaking to some lower-level people, the leaders did not speak," he said.
The Corps Commander in Peshawar, Lieutenant-General Safdar Hussain, on Tuesday visited Dera Ismail Khan, the closest urban center to South Waziristan, where he attended a briefing with the army on its the next moves.
According to a local resident in the area, fresh fighting began late Tuesday evening when Pakistan army troops occupied the homes of people in Kalooshah, situated in South Waziristan near the Afghanistan border.
At the same time, Pakistani authorities forcibly removed all foreign and local journalists from the area. Several local media persons who worked as stringers for foreign publications, including one for Asia Times Online, were taken into custody and then released after having their cameras and tape recorders confiscated.
Resistance spreads
The level of resistance to the Pakistan army in the tribal areas - by both foreign militants and local tribespeople - has been far greater than anticipated, according to security people who spoke to Asia Times Online. They claim that the reaction has now reached dangerous levels as it appears to be spreading beyond South and North Waziristan to the other five tribal regions. Attacks have been reported in Khuram agency (Parachanar) on army troops. There have also been protest rallies in Khyber agency, with tribal leaders warning that if the army does not withdraw from South Waziristan, they will join hands with Wazir tribes there.
The country's top brass are obviously deeply concerned at the situation, but are compelled to push on with the operation as the United States is applying heavy pressure on Islamabad to remain committed. As a result, cracks are already appearing within the army as some ranks are unwilling to take on their countrymen. In one publicized case, a major refused to fly a helicopter gunship.
According to another officer, who served in North Waziristan as a junior officer, the Data Khail tribe is traditionally the most disliked among all Wazir tribesmen. These tribesmen are generally very primitive and have a long record of being associated with heroin trafficking, car theft and child abductions, where the children are sold into slave labor. Many a criminal from across Pakistan has taken refuge with them - for a fee.
However, after the emergence of the Taliban in Pakistan in the 1990s, the Data Khail were widely reformed. Poppy cultivation is now prohibited in their areas, mosques and Islamic seminaries have been built and many of the young lads were educated in the famous Haqqania seminary of Akora Khattack in Pakistan, from where they returned to their homeland to improve the lot of their people.
Now, in this time of crisis, despite their notorious past, other Wazir tribes have joined with the Data Khail in the name of jihad and mujahideens. The battle continues.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/FC25Df04.html
>"Afghan Northern Alliance and Indian intelligence will take advantage of the situation and try their level best to further deteriorate the situation"<
I knew there'd be problems
Yes it is. Pakistan and India have been fighting each other for years over Kashmir. I think it was in 2001 or 2002 they were close to nuclear war. This encounter has more implications than we can know.
Musharraf left counting the cost
By Syed Saleem Shahzad 3/30/2004
KARACHI - The 12-day Pakistani army operation in the South Waziristan tribal area near the Afghan frontier is winding down following the release on Sunday of 12 government officials and soldiers seized by alleged al-Qaeda fighters and tribal allies. Similarly, a number of tribal suspects held by the army have been set free or will be released soon.
Those released by the tribals were among 14 people captured at the start of a clash in which more than 100 people have been killed. After cordoning off the area around Wana in South Waziristan with over 5,000 troops and losing about 50 soldiers in the offensive, the military says that "we have almost achieved our set targets" in driving al-Qaeda fugitives and Afghan resistance fighters from the region.
Tension has been high after the execution of eight Pakistan soldiers, who had been taken hostage by the fighters during an ambush on an army convoy last Tuesday.
The end of open hostilities, however, is only the beginning, and far from achieving its targets, the army, and Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf, are left with far bigger problems than when they first embarked on the mission into the tribal region nearly two weeks ago.
Call for help
Although the Pakistan army has put a brave face on its South Waziristan escapade, claiming that its job has been done, in reality it had to rely on outside help to extricate itself with a semblance of its "face" intact.
After all efforts to pacify the hostile tribals failed - the semi-autonomous regions are notoriously anti-central authority - the government persuaded leading clerics to bring pressure to bear on the tribals to negotiate a truce. The clerics, who belong to the six-party Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) religious political party that is well represented in the National Assembly as well as the provincial governments of North West Frontier Province and Balochistan, are usually perceived as anti-US, but in fact, when the chips are down, they dance to Musharraf's tune.
The army sought help from the clerics on two fronts:
· To use their influence among the tribes to get them to compromise;
· To prevent the spread of a campaign started by some extreme religious leaders in Islamabad in which soldiers serving in the tribal regions were to be denied funeral rites.
Winners and losers
Despite heavy United States pressure for a sustained campaign in Pakistan to once and for all drive all insurgents (both foreign fighters and Afghan resistance) from their sanctuaries in the tribal areas, the operation has now ended.
In terms of the broader picture, the plan was for the Pakistan army on the one side and US troops across the border in Afghanistan to sandwich all resistance between a "hammer and an anvil" and drive them from the Shawal area - an inhospitable no man's land that straddles the border. This is nowhere near to being achieved.
And there has been a strong backlash against the Pakistan establishment, both in the tribal areas and in the country in general, the extent of which has severely rattled the country's leaders. Indeed, according to insiders who spoke to Asia Times Online, there is a perception that, given the failings of the South Waziristan operation, there is an "an intelligence within an intelligence" and "an army within an army" in Pakistan and that factions in these organizations backed the tribals "in the name of Islam". According to sources, more than 150 soldiers of the army and para-military forces refused to take part in the action, including at least one colonel and a major.
The release of a tape last week purported to have been made by Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's No 2 in al-Qaeda, also shook the establishment. Al-Zawahiri was reported to be the "high profile target" of the South Wazaristan operation. In the tape, al-Zawahiri called Musharraf a "traitor" and urged people to overthrow his government. "Musharraf seeks to stab the Islamic resistance in Afghanistan in the back. Every Muslim in Pakistan should work hard to get rid of this client government, which will continue to submit to America until it destroys Pakistan," the speaker on the tape said.
As a result, for the first time ever, the Inter-Services Intelligence, Military Intelligence and the Intelligence Bureau on Friday conducted a survey in which they canvassed the opinions of professionals, including writers and lawyers, on the possible repercussions of the taped speech.
The political backlash of the South Waziristan operation has been so powerful that Musharraf has inducted former dictator General Zia ul-Haq's son, Ejazul Haq, into the federal cabinet as minister for religious affairs in order to use his good offices - as the son of the staunchly pro-Islam leader - with the religious segments of society.
Tribals take stock
Soon after the truce was announced on Sunday and the Pakistan army began returning to its camp, pamphlets in the Pashto language were widely distributed in Bannu, North Waziristan and South Waziristan. They claimed: "Do not ever make the mistake of chasing the mujahideen of the Taliban and al-Qaeda." The pamphlets clearly warned those tribals who had cooperated with Pakistan and spied on the fugitives.
In a public gathering on Monday in Wana in South Wazaristan, religious and tribal leaders gathered to take stock. "It was just like Jasn-e-Fatah ," a contact who was present told Asia Times Online. "Wazir tribals presented turbans to more than 100 jirga people as a gesture of thanks and confidence."
Members of the National Assembly in Islamabad and others gave speeches, the gist of which can be summarized as follows:
· Congratulations to all the tribes for fighting as a united nation.
· The tribes had once again proved their "glorious traditions" of fighting evil.
· The Federally-Administered Tribal Areas will remain independent.
· The Central administration is always hostile to the tribal people and has established new traditions of "cruelty and barbarism".
· Musharraf was misguided about the alleged presence of bin Laden and al-Zawahiri and other al-Qaeda people.
The meeting concluded that the army had destroyed 84 houses in its search for fugitives, and that claims that the fugitives had used long tunnels to escape were nonsense. In fact, these are trenches that have been used for many years to carry water. Now the army has destroyed them - and with it the region's water system.
The meeting concluded by saying that those who died in the trouble were shaheed (martyrs), and apologized for the army personal who died, saying it was the fault of the "high ups".
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/FC30Df01.html
Edited 3/29/2004 12:15 pm ET ET by hayashig
Op-ed: Outside View: al-Qaeda factor.
http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20040402-100606-5344r.htm
It is difficult to understand and justify conflicts that end not with a clear-cut victory but in a tie, or in ambivalent results that contain the seeds of future conflicts. If the recent siege against terrorists in Pakistan is illustrative, however, we had better get used to many such skirmishes in the long struggle against radical Islamist terrorism.
Pakistan's two-week military offensive against al-Qaida in South Waziristan, on the border with Afghanistan, ended with hundreds, including 60 Pakistani troops, dead. Despite superior military resources and aerial support, along with logistical assistance from the United States, the Pakistani military suffered significant losses as the militants were aided by battle-hardened local tribesmen.
Tribesmen in this area learn to use weapons at an early age. A number of them participated in the U.S.-backed Afghan jihad against Soviet occupation troops in Afghanistan in the 1980s. Later, many fought alongside the Taliban against the Northern Alliance and the United States in late 2001. Those fighting skills helped them to put up fierce resistance to the Pakistani army despite being outgunned and outnumbered. They broke the siege launched by more than 7,000 soldiers employing classic guerrilla tactics.
South Waziristan is inhabited mainly by Pashtuns, the large conservative ethnic group that forms the majority in Afghanistan and dominates Pakistan's Northwest Frontier Province and Baluchistan Province. The two major Pushtun tribes are Wazir and Mahsud. The Wazir live on both sides of the Durand Line that serves as a border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Wazir tribesmen also live in the Wana valley where most of the fighting took place. Seven Federally Administered Tribal Areas, with a population of nearly 6 million, were originally created by the British to serve as a buffer between Afghanistan and British India.
During the recent siege, thousands of people were forced to flee their homes, massive property damage occurred and any goodwill the tribal people had for the Pakistan army evaporated, fanning the belief the military offensive was launched at the behest of the Americans. From the secular Pakistan Peoples Party of Benazir Bhutto to former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League, and from the nationalists to the Islamist Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, all political parties in Pakistan demanded that President Pervez Musharraf order an end to military operations. The provincial governments of Pakistan's NWFP and Baluchistan are controlled by Islamic fundamentalist parties who are deeply offended by the army operations and openly support the Taleban movement in Afghanistan.
In recent weeks, thousands of American and Pakistani troops operating on both sides of the border waged a fierce battle to capture al-Qaida's top leaders. Speculation by media, fueled by comments from Pakistani officials, that Osama bin Laden's right-hand man. Ayman al-Zawahri, had been cornered and that his capture was imminent was just that -- speculation.
Capturing or killing bin Laden will be a propaganda victory at best. He has been able to transform al-Qaida into an ideology that fuses politics, religion and historical grievance. He says he feels called by Allah to destroy the United States and its allies, liquidate Israel, eliminate corrupt Muslim governments and establish a world Islamic order. Like so many fanatics, bin Laden's appeal lies in his very extremism. His message is that the United States is decadent and weak. He said after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks: "There is America hit by God in one of its softest spots. Its greatest buildings were destroyed. These events have split the world into two camps -- the camp of the faithful and the camp of the infidels."
The Madrid, Spain, bombings late last month are testimony to the fanaticism of the jihadis. The ability to change governments is a new power that al-Qaida is savoring. It has demonstrated it can kill on a large scale in Western capitals ensuring the war on terrorism will be long , bloody and unpredictable.
The effort to defeat terrorism is nearly three years old. Its leaders, George Bush, Tony Blair and Spain's outgoing Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar (among many others) are being judged on the results, and not always charitably. Bush would do well to study the Russian and Spanish elections very carefully. The lessons are not encouraging.
Vladimir Putin had the advantage of creating a controlled democracy characterized by a muzzled press and pre-election stamping out of rival power centers. But even without these factors he would undoubtedly have won. Russians like him for being a "strong" president, who takes a tough stand on domestic terrorism.
Aznar had the advantage of a good economic record but lost, because Spaniards dislike him as a prime minister who backed the Iraq war against domestic opinion and fears that such an involvement would risk the wrath of Islamic terrorists on Spain. The Madrid blasts two days before the elections were seen as a conformation of that apprehension.
Bush faces a different situation in that Americans by and large still think the war in Iraq was for a domestic purpose -- to make the United States "safer." His campaign has focused so far on his being a "war president," a term he has used to describe himself. At some point, bad news from Baghdad will make Iraq a foreign war, and not a domestic safety issue. That could anger voters and hurt the president.
The capture of bin Laden and Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar would provide a boost to Bush. However, Pakistan's increased role in the volatile tribal belt poses enormous political and military risks for Musharraf. The army is already being chastised by opposition political parties for holding Pakistan's nuclear scientists responsible for operating a nuclear black-market while whitewashing the army's own possible role in the affair. The military also fears that if it helps the United States capture bin Laden, its perceived usefulness to the Bush administration may come to an end.
Whether bin Laden is captured or not, Pakistan's domestic peace and stability continue to be vulnerable. Washington must be careful not to exacerbate the situation.
I keep having a vision of Bush hitting a hornets nest with a long stick then running away so others get stung. Yet, people continue to believe they are safer today with a macho war president at the helm.
Or stirring up a fire ant hill.
>"people continue to believe they are safer today"<
Gullable, or want to believe that as long as it's somewhere else & not their doorstep they're safe.
I'm a glass half full kind of person, but even I'm being put to the test.
Edited 4/2/2004 5:23 pm ET ET by cl-libraone
This purpose of this saying is to separate optomists from pessimist, obviously a determination of perspective. To me the glass is still half filled; the other half is still missing. Whether this is good/bad depends on whether you wanted the glass full or empty. I always shake my head and wonder what the goal is--go figure!!
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