The Spring Offensive
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| Wed, 03-17-2004 - 1:48pm |
How the US set Pakistan aflame
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - The flames of war have spread into Pakistan, with fierce fighting between government forces and tribespeople in volatile South Waziristan agency near the Afghanistan border, and the fire threatens to engulf neighboring areas. The spark was provided by United States pressure on the government of President General Pervez Musharraf to help in Washington's "war on terror", but ironically, the only gainer will be the anti-US Afghan resistance.
The fighting erupted as US-led forces began a spring offensive to eradicate Taliban and al-Qaeda remnants in Afganistan. The US plan depends on crucial support from Pakistan to keep a lid on its border region which is notorious for supporting and sheltering the Afghan resistance. Now the Pakistani military is fighting its own citizens there, and US Secretary of State Colin Powell, who timed a visit to Pakistan to coincide with the launch of the offensive and shore up support, will return home with the news that the situation is getting ever more out of hand.
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The most immediate threat to Pakistan's stability is within the Pakistani army, where a strong contingency rejects Musharraf and his accommodation of the US. This may push political parties like Jamaat-i-Islami to stage strong demonstrations of power in an effort to force Musharraf to step down.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/FC18Df01.html
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US's foes set to pounce
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - While the United States-led coalition makes its latest attempt to round up Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters on the Pakistan-Afghan border, new evidence is reinforcing the certainty that the Afghan resistance isn't just sitting around waiting to get caught, and nor is the International Islamic Front going to relent in its determination to wreak havoc on the US and its allies elsewhere.
High-level sources tell Asia Times Online the Afghan resistance movement and the International Islamic Front - a loose umbrella for a network of cells dedicated to jihad against America - have finalized plans to enter a decisive phase of their offensive, aimed at forcing the US-led coalition out of Afghanistan by inflicting injuries on the interests of the US and its allies both on and off the battlefield.
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On the Afghan-Pakistan front
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The global plan of attack
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/FC17Df03.html
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Deathly silence descends on South Waziristan
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
(See also US sets Pakistan aflame)
KARACHI - Villagers in Pakistan's South Waziristan agency have left their homes, fearing the United States will soon begin dropping bombs, while aircraft from the Afghan side of the border fly overhead. On the ground, burnt-out military vehicles litter the landscape. The fighting has stopped and an eerie silence prevails over the area, said Zafar, a resident of Wana who gave an eyewitness account to Asia Times Online from Watchadana, which borders Afghanistan.
But the present calm is just the beginning of a new storm. Tuesday's deadly clash between Pakistani forces and local tribespeople marks the first time in the last several operations, when Pakistani troops came down forcefully in South Waziristan, that they have been humiliated by the tribals - along with the Islamic militants who have already converged in the area and view the situation as a holy war. South Waziristan is one of seven federally administered tribal areas where fiercely independent tribes have been allowed to govern their own affairs. Al-Qaeda and the Taliban enjoy widespread popular support in the mountainous and isolated border areas, the poorest and most religiously conservative parts of Pakistan.
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The manner in which Pakistan's armed forces disowned both the operation and the level of the insurgency shows the military is fully aware that the situation is out of control. But at the same time , these denials also reflect that the armed forces do not want to take the blame for a clash between Pakistani forces and Pakistani citizens in which both sustained casualties - especially when they are fighting a war for somebody else on Pakistani soil. The situation clearly hints the future course of action - and who is now really dominating the Pakistani Army: the US.

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By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - After the Pakistani army's failure in its recent operation in the South Waziristan tribal area to deal a significant blow to foreign resistance fighters poised for action in Afghanistan, Pakistan and the United States have concluded that they have no alternative other than to undertake "mission impossible": the capture of the "Shawal" base that straddles the border.
To date, US-led forces have respected the Durand Line that separates Afghanistan and Pakistan, waiting for Pakistani forces to drive foreign militants, Afghan resistance fighters and Taliban into their hands from across the border in a "hammer and anvil" approach.
This has proved ineffective, and security forces have told Asia Times Online that, with great reluctance and trepidation, Pakistan and the US will soon launch operations designed to secure the Shawal area.
As Asia Times Online has described (Afghan offensive: Grand plans hit rugged reality, March 20), "Technically speaking, Shawal falls on the Afghan side of the Durand Line that divides Pakistan and Afghanistan. (Editor's note: The border area inside North Waziristan is also called Shawal.) In reality, Shawal is a no-man's land, a place no one would want to go to unless he were as tough as the local tribespeople, a guerrilla fighter taking on the US, or, perhaps, Osama bin Laden. Shawal is a deep and most dangerous maze."
The Shawal area has for centuries given protection to people, explains Senator Syed Murad Ali Shah, one of the most low-profile Jamaat-i-Islami leaders, though he has been a major player in the region of Afghanistan and Iran since 1967.
"The reason why descendents of the Prophet Mohammed's family are found in huge numbers in Afghanistan and along the Indus river has an historic background. After the assassination of Husein in Karbala and subsequent clashes between members of Prophet's family and the Umayyads several members of the family fled into what is now Iraq, and they also took refuge exactly in this area where Pakistani troops are fighting to arrest foreign fighters. The Arab armies failed to access the area, and later on the Afghan tribes struck a deal with Abu Mosa Ashari that these 'foreigners' under their protection would not move anywhere. The foreigners married into the local population and spread all over the region along the Indus," the senator explained.
Now US commanders believe they are capable of seizing this natural fortress of Shawal, where thick jungles and mountains can swallow many dozens of people without a trace.
A blueprint for the Shawal action has, according to those close to the planning who spoke to Asia Times Online, has been chalked over several meetings between Pakistani President and Chief of Army General Pervez Musharraf, the vice chief of army ataff, General Mohammed Yusuf, and top US commanders, including General Abi Zaid, commander of the US Central Command.
The Shawal targeted in the present campaign is situated in Afghanistan, but the controversial part of the plan is realization that it would be impossible for US troops not to transgress into Pakistani territory in hot pursuit of targets if the mission is to have any success.
It is near impossible for any army to conduct "search and seize" operations in the jungles of Shawal. Therefore, US patrols will disappear into the jungle, and attempt to track down fugitives with satellite technology backed with helicopters. As admitted by Musharraf, few of the foreign fighters have the equipment needed to jam communication systems.
According to the Asia Times Online sources, Pakistani authorities are deeply concerned over the losses incurred in the last operation in South Waziristan. Officially, the government has admitted to the death of about 50 soldiers. But independent sources and witnesses reckon the number could be as high as 800, including both military and paramilitary forces.
Yet as the situation stands now, Pakistan can be expected to incur more losses. Already troops have been ordered to take up positions around the Shawal area, but in Pakistan territory. The locals are unhappy about this presence. They will be a lot less happy when US troops show up on their doorsteps.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/FD10Ag01.html
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