Huge Upset in India's elections.
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| Thu, 05-13-2004 - 9:56am |
How India's elections were won and lost.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/3711395.stm
The debacle of what has happened to India's ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led 22-party alliance in the general elections proves the country's voters cannot be taken for granted.
Indian premier Atal Behari Vajpayee, touted as the ruling coalition's show-stopping, vote-catching statesman-politician, had called the polls six months early on the back of his peace initiatives with nuclear rival and neighbour Pakistan and a perceived heady feeling over robust economic growth.
His party spin doctors had coined the phrase "India Shining" - a reference to what they said was a feel-good factor sweeping the country.
The government spent taxpayers money spreading the good word.
It seemed to be a cruel joke in a nation where a third of its people still live on less than $1 a day and human development indices are largely appalling.
As it turns out, most of the voters were not amused and decided to put the lights out on the BJP and its allies, leaving politicians and analysts stunned by the extent of the defeat.
Not that the BJP-led coalition was on a roll in the run-up to the elections, despite glowing reports in the Indian media about its seeming invincibility.
Some of its major regional allies such as the Telegu Desam Party (TDP) and AIADMK party were in trouble in their respective states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
The BJP itself was lagging behind in the politically crucial states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
The television exit polls after the initial rounds had given the first signs of warning: most of them showed the main opposition Congress and its allies narrowing the gap with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition.
"But the margin of NDA's defeat is truly stunning. The odds that the Congress could so soon become the largest party of India were certainly very low. It is a most surprising result," says Professor Ashutosh Varshney, who teaches political science at the University of Michigan.
He says: "The conclusion is inescapable. The less economically privileged sections of India and the minorities have spoken loudly, clearly and unambiguously, and the privileged have in all probability not even stepped out to vote."
Analysts believe that, on the whole, India's less privileged - the rural masses and the urban poor - appeared to have found the BJP's "India Shining" campaign unacceptable and offensive.
"There is no doubt that the Indian economy has done very well of late, but the primary beneficiaries have been the rich and the urban middle class. The less privileged outnumber the middle classes by a big margin," says Professor Varshney.
'Anti-people economics'
He reckons the middle and richer urban classes, the beneficiaries of economic reforms and the greatest supporters of the BJP, "stayed home", whereas the less privileged and the minorities "stepped out in large numbers to vote".
Political commentator Harish Khare agrees, saying the extent of the BJP-led coalition's defeat showed the government had followed "anti-people economics" with its programme of reforms.
"The question is not whether economic reforms will continue. The question is about ways and means of making reforms meaningful for the poor and the dispossessed," he says.
Pratap Bhanu Mehta, who teaches government at Harvard University, says it is difficult to pin down any one reason which formed the basis of the judgement of Indian voters.
"None of these criteria will singly measure up. Nor will outdated explanations like caste and vote bank politics illuminate the outcome.
"The only thing there is a consensus on is the fact that the electorate will not let anyone take it for granted. The effects of economic growth are too diffusely spread for governments to be rewarded."
The split verdict in the BJP stronghold of Gujarat, which was rocked by one of the worst bouts of communal rioting since Independence, is also significant.
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The revival of fortunes of India's grand old Congress party, has now become the talking point in the country.
Internal feuds
The 199-year-old party was hobbled by internal feuds and looked listless and lacklustre in the run up to the elections.
The induction of Rahul Gandhi, the scion of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, in the election fray was seen by rivals and commentators as a desperate ploy by a sinking party.
"This is a significant victory for the Congress, in light of the fact that its ideology, leadership and organisation had all been written off," says Mr Mehta.
The big question now is whether the Congress and its Communist allies, who have mixed views on economic reforms, will be able to forge a workable ruling coalition led by Sonia Gandhi, a completely untested leader in government or coalition politics.
Mr Mehta says "ideologically there is no reason why a Congress-led coalition should not be a cohesive one".

Prof Varshney says a Congress-left coalition would depend on whether a "common minimum programme" between the two parties can be successfully evolved.
"If that's done the odds are that a reasonably stable government can be formed," he says.
The days ahead will prove how the Congress and the leftist parties thrash out their differences over the path of economic reforms - and whether the leftist parties will join the new government.
The thinking is that the reforms will go on, but the new economic policy will be more inclined towards agriculture with an emphasis on the development of villages.
Edited 5/13/2004 10:01 am ET ET by cl-libraone


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Sonia Gandhi sweeps to power.
India's Gandhi dynasty swept back to power yesterday on a stunning wave of anger among millions of rural poor, who felt left behind by the economic boom and voted out the Hindu nationalist government.
Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee conceded defeat and was expected to resign, Defence Minister George Fernandes said after the opposition Congress party and its allies swept the polls in the world's largest democracy.
"We have decided to sit in the opposition," he said.
Congress, led by Italian-born Sonia Gandhi and her children, Rahul and Priyanka, the new faces of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, could take power by next week.
"A... secular coalition led by Congress should take the oath in the next few days," party spokeswoman Ambika Soni said. However, a Congress coalition is likely to have to depend on the support of leftist parties, who registered their best performance yet.
Analysts said the new government was likely to continue the reforms crucial for Asia's third-largest economy, but they might have to be redesigned to ensure benefits percolated down to the poor and were not restricted to the urban upper classes.
More..............
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/05/13/1084289817429.html
Sonia Gandhi wins against the odds.
i don't really like sonia, but one good thing is that she could be good at defusing some of the ethnic and religious tensions....
It
From Palak
Hi Libraone,
When I heard BJP lost, i was shocked, dissapointed and depressed for 3 hours or so and then I had to come to grips. I am very much against the congress party. Well, actually the politics in India is million times worst than US, jsut so you can get the pic. I have never been a fan of congress and Gandhi Family since they were the ruling party after Independence and are responsible for destroying the foundation. Having said that, BJP and Atal Bihari Bajpai the former PM did wonders for the country in the last six years. I know this becasue my family was not very affluent and we were middle class(middle class over there is like poor class) over here. But now we are doing much much better. Perviously only very rich could afford a car and even if he had one it would use it rarely because of petrol being so expensive. Last 4 to 5 years people can buy cars like in America, they can afford to drive their car to work etc. Taht is a sharp contrast to what I had seen before. This all happened because of the free trade policies by BJP government. What I would think is that the country which was in doom for decades showed vast improvement in last six years. Agreed that IT boom iddnot do much for farmers and rural community but Iwould think when the whole countries economy is improving the wealth is going to trickle down to the rural areas. I was getting a feeling of reduction in the corruption too. Basically it was an upward trend for the country after decades. Peace talks with Pakistan is a majopr achievement. But I guess they failed to convince the poor that they are good for the country and for the poor, so they lost. Elections in India is also a joke to some extent. Parties can make the poor people vote just by giving a bottle of liquor and some food or some cash, but educated people are soemtimes so confused as to who to vote because the politician also change their parties often and so they just don't go and vote. In this election also Congress is not a majority but they will form a party by support of other parties like communist party from Bengal and some individual parties from southern states. Most of the BJP cabinet ministers were educated poeple and experienced in politics where congress party has people who cannot read or write, it scares me about the decisions they make. Sonia Gandhi's son who won in Amethi has been living in England and is a marketing guy, zero experience in Politics esp Indian Politics. India needs someone who can stand strong inspite of all the corruption around them. I don't know if that will happen with so many internal fights among the party leaders. But I am keeping my fingers crosssed. BJP has paved a way to better future I pray that congress will continue. Also BJP has learned a lesson, maybe they forgot the poor and were over confident and didn't campaign properly, so they paid a price. I hdon't have much faith in congress but I am going to keep an open mind. Sorry for such a long post.
To Palak.......
>"Agreed that IT boom didnot do much for farmers and rural community but I would think when the whole countries economy is improving the wealth is going to trickle down to the rural areas."<
I agree, most would be better off eventually.
>"Peace talks with Pakistan is a major achievement."<
Here's an descriptive article I found today.............
Crowds flock to India-Pakistan border to watch saber-rattling spectacle.
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/fea/travel/rest/stories/050904dntraindia.a3b0c.html
WAGAH, ON THE INDIA-PAKISTAN BORDER – Against the backdrop of the setting sun, a crowd of 5,000 gathers along a remote country road to witness an event that is part circus, part nationalistic ritual – and all spectacle.
Nowhere do flags symbolize the hopes and dreams of nations more than here, at the only border crossing between India and Pakistan, rivals in everything from cricket to nuclear arms.
In a ceremony that takes place every day at sunset, soldiers from each side lower their nations' flags in mirror-image displays of high-step marching and jingoistic posturing that routinely draw thousands of onlookers to Wagah, a border post located on both sides of the Pakistan-India line.
The meticulously choreographed tête-à-tête embodies the similarities – and the fundamental difference – between Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan.
It also embodies the often-surreal nature of the India-Pakistan dispute, with soldiers – friendly during daytime – turning out at sunset to rattle their sabers in ostentatious displays of chest-pounding fervor.
Still, the U.S. State Department recommends Americans avoid travel to border areas between India and Pakistan because of continued tensions. It also suggests avoiding all unnecessary travel to Pakistan.
On a recent evening, cheers rained from the packed, stadium-style stands along the road on the Indian side, as celebrators danced to the rousing beats of Punjabi pop music pumping from large loudspeakers. Schoolchildren lined the curbs, sipping Pepsi and munching salty snacks. Turbaned men waved small orange, white and green Indian flags emblazoned with "I love my India," in bold capital letters.
Across the border, a considerably smaller crowd of Pakistanis chanted patriotic slogans and waved versions of their own flag, a white star and crescent moon on a field of green.
"I'll continue shouting slogans for Pakistan until I die," said Muhammad Shafiq, 26, a baker who has been coming to the ceremony for six years. "I do this for the sake of my country."
Several minutes before, a half-dozen soldiers from each side – brawny, 6-foot-plus men in ceremonial uniforms and turbans topped with starched, fanlike combs – marched to the center of the road about 30 yards from the border and stood frozen at attention. Their commanders, facing them, bellowed commands – the Indian side in Hindi and the Pakistani side in Urdu.
A single guard from each country high-stepped to each gate – arms swinging, boots pounding – as the crowds of their countrymen applauded.
The Indian soldier violently flung open a gate to reach his flag as his counterpart on the Pakistani side shoved open sliding doors on his side. The two men shared a robotic handshake before taking positions under their respective flags, all the while glowering at each other across the so-called "zero line."
The rest of the men followed, one at a time. Each man stopped 10 feet short of his side's gate and struck a defiant pose in the direction of the other country – hands at hips, chest puffed out, chin raised – before taking his position near the mouth of the gate.
Each flag descended slowly, so as not to dip below the other on its way down.
Then, flags safely stowed, spectators on the both sides rushed into the roadway, cheerfully posing for photographs with the soldiers, some of whom signed autographs. Several onlookers went directly to the border to pose for snapshots with one foot in each country.
The Pakistani viewing podium and a small terrace below it can hold about 2,000 people. On a good day Pakistani and Indian crowds are about the same.
The Pakistani throng's chants of "God is great," and "Long live Pakistan" were audible against the cries of "Hail India" and "Long Live Hindustan" from the other side.
The flag ceremony was first performed shortly after India's independence from Britain and its division into two countries in 1947. The British set aside Pakistan for Muslims and India was established as a multi-religious country with a secular constitution.
The two countries share many similarities, including language. Though written in different scripts, the spoken forms of Hindi and Urdu are similar enough to be understood in both countries.
In the last five decades, India and Pakistan have fought three wars. Today, the dispute centers on Kashmir, the Himalayan region claimed by both sides, where troops daily exchanged gunfire until a recent cease-fire.
While no shots are fired at Wagah, the belligerence of the rite has grown far more intense since its early days, when it was a quiet ceremony, witnessed by only a few soldiers.
Some say they detect tension at the ceremony; others say it's more style than substance.
"At first it may seem a bit funny, like something just done for the tourists. Then you realize it's also very nationalistic," said Ward Van Heddeghem, a Belgian tourist. "It doesn't feel like real, hard politics. They wouldn't be doing this if they didn't have any neighborly feelings."
Alam Zeb, a Pakistani Rangerwho starts the ceremony with the traditional handshake, said relations between soldiers were cordial.
"We are friendly," he said. "It's the same every day, shaking hands and so on. It feels completely normal."
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Palak's analysis corroberates the articles I've read. I hope there is no change in policy about peace with Pakistan. I agree it will be interesting to watch.
Here's one of my sources:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/FE15Df04.html
Let me explain. I read a post from
Here is a little more on the Election in India.
First you have to understand that Sonia Gandhi's cngress didn't get teh majority of the seats in most of the states but they will for govt with forming alliance with other parties. BJP lost votes of some people who advocate against foreign national companies thriving in India, They are the idiots who don't realize how much free market has helped India. These guys feel BJP let them down because of the so called Hindutva image. They didn't appreciate the peace talks with Pakistan. they felt let down becuse they thought BJP is trying to get muslim votes.Ofcourse India and pakistan has a long way to go before any real peace happens. So I think many of them voted against BJP. Also, as I said before they slacked a bit in campaigning. I know some villages where high profile BJP leaders were supposed to visit and dropped out at the last minute. Sonia did very good campaigning this time. Ofcourse she promised that she will give free electricity to all the villages. This is very stupid. Becasue as such there is scarcity of Electricity everywhere, cities also get regular cuts in electricity, e.g few hours a week power goes of entirely. Now it is more reasonable to give farmer free power for their irrigation systems etc, but not for houses. Why should it be free in their homes. Such promises are made to win the election. Also, most of the people are opposed to a naturalized citizen being the PM. Unfortunately, they didn't think while writing a constitution that only natural born citizen is allowed to be the head of the Country like in US. So there will be power struggle within the same party as usual resulting in very unstable govt. This will hinder any actual work getting done for the country because most of the time is spent in internal allegation and fights and threats of withdrawal of support by other parties. As I said politics is worst. After a long time a stable govt was formed by BJP, that is why they were able to acheive so much. I am not saying they are all saints but it is like the lesser devil of the two. Like I said, I am keeping my fingers crossed and hope that the new govt. will continue the positive trend that has started for India. India is now the 4th largest economy of the world. The dollar exchange rate went cosiderably down. Stock market went down after election because BJP lost. There were some bad apples in BJP like Naidu from Andhra Pradesh. He really exploited farmers. He did good for IT but he bought lands from Farmers at very low prices and made lot of money while developing it. As I said, BJP needs to learn the lesson from this and comeback better in the next election.
are you in india now? what part? what field do you work in? (if you don't mind my asking personal questions)
i don't like sonia gandhi too much, but i'm not sure about the congress party... i didn't like them 6 years ago, but i'm wavering now.
but i don't like bjp. i don't like the push for free market reforms and development at the expense of the majority of the population (not that i'm opposed to the free market, but i think they took the wrong approach in india - it's not like the US). i also think the arms race was a bad idea - too much money for nuclear power, when the military is underdeveloped anyway and social programs could use a boost.
however, i'm not sure that the congress alliance is going to make anything better. i think there's an inordinated amount of corruption at so many levels in the government... a good house cleaning is in order.
You are right, I enjoy reading her post also. Thanks for the effort.
This year is a very strange one there was trouble in Taiwan, and the Philippines and Indondesia are also having problems. Arroyo (?) in the Philippines won, but much talk about election tampering.
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