Huge Upset in India's elections.

iVillage Member
Registered: 03-18-2000
Huge Upset in India's elections.
19
Thu, 05-13-2004 - 9:56am

How India's elections were won and lost.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/3711395.stm


The debacle of what has happened to India's ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led 22-party alliance in the general elections proves the country's voters cannot be taken for granted.


Indian premier Atal Behari Vajpayee, touted as the ruling coalition's show-stopping, vote-catching statesman-politician, had called the polls six months early on the back of his peace initiatives with nuclear rival and neighbour Pakistan and a perceived heady feeling over robust economic growth.

His party spin doctors had coined the phrase "India Shining" - a reference to what they said was a feel-good factor sweeping the country.

The government spent taxpayers money spreading the good word.

It seemed to be a cruel joke in a nation where a third of its people still live on less than $1 a day and human development indices are largely appalling.

As it turns out, most of the voters were not amused and decided to put the lights out on the BJP and its allies, leaving politicians and analysts stunned by the extent of the defeat.

Not that the BJP-led coalition was on a roll in the run-up to the elections, despite glowing reports in the Indian media about its seeming invincibility.


Some of its major regional allies such as the Telegu Desam Party (TDP) and AIADMK party were in trouble in their respective states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.


The BJP itself was lagging behind in the politically crucial states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

The television exit polls after the initial rounds had given the first signs of warning: most of them showed the main opposition Congress and its allies narrowing the gap with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition.

"But the margin of NDA's defeat is truly stunning. The odds that the Congress could so soon become the largest party of India were certainly very low. It is a most surprising result," says Professor Ashutosh Varshney, who teaches political science at the University of Michigan.

He says: "The conclusion is inescapable. The less economically privileged sections of India and the minorities have spoken loudly, clearly and unambiguously, and the privileged have in all probability not even stepped out to vote."

Analysts believe that, on the whole, India's less privileged - the rural masses and the urban poor - appeared to have found the BJP's "India Shining" campaign unacceptable and offensive.

"There is no doubt that the Indian economy has done very well of late, but the primary beneficiaries have been the rich and the urban middle class. The less privileged outnumber the middle classes by a big margin," says Professor Varshney.

'Anti-people economics'

He reckons the middle and richer urban classes, the beneficiaries of economic reforms and the greatest supporters of the BJP, "stayed home", whereas the less privileged and the minorities "stepped out in large numbers to vote".

Political commentator Harish Khare agrees, saying the extent of the BJP-led coalition's defeat showed the government had followed "anti-people economics" with its programme of reforms.

"The question is not whether economic reforms will continue. The question is about ways and means of making reforms meaningful for the poor and the dispossessed," he says.

Pratap Bhanu Mehta, who teaches government at Harvard University, says it is difficult to pin down any one reason which formed the basis of the judgement of Indian voters.







 
He says: "What is the litmus test on the basis of which government performance is judged? Growth? Low inflation? Unemployment? Corruption?

"None of these criteria will singly measure up. Nor will outdated explanations like caste and vote bank politics illuminate the outcome.

"The only thing there is a consensus on is the fact that the electorate will not let anyone take it for granted. The effects of economic growth are too diffusely spread for governments to be rewarded."

The split verdict in the BJP stronghold of Gujarat, which was rocked by one of the worst bouts of communal rioting since Independence, is also significant.








 
"The BJP's setback in Gujarat is one of the redeeming features of this election. It is a clear rejection of communal politics. The average, pragmatic middle class Gujarati does not want a perpetual civil war in the state," says Mr Khare.

The revival of fortunes of India's grand old Congress party, has now become the talking point in the country.

Internal feuds

The 199-year-old party was hobbled by internal feuds and looked listless and lacklustre in the run up to the elections.

The induction of Rahul Gandhi, the scion of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, in the election fray was seen by rivals and commentators as a desperate ploy by a sinking party.

"This is a significant victory for the Congress, in light of the fact that its ideology, leadership and organisation had all been written off," says Mr Mehta.

The big question now is whether the Congress and its Communist allies, who have mixed views on economic reforms, will be able to forge a workable ruling coalition led by Sonia Gandhi, a completely untested leader in government or coalition politics.

Mr Mehta says "ideologically there is no reason why a Congress-led coalition should not be a cohesive one".






Sonia Gandhi oX the campaign trail
Sonia Gandhi is totally untested as a politician
"The question will turn more on the skills, imagination and management techniques the party employs for pushing things through," he adds.

Prof Varshney says a Congress-left coalition would depend on whether a "common minimum programme" between the two parties can be successfully evolved.

"If that's done the odds are that a reasonably stable government can be formed," he says.

The days ahead will prove how the Congress and the leftist parties thrash out their differences over the path of economic reforms - and whether the leftist parties will join the new government.

The thinking is that the reforms will go on, but the new economic policy will be more inclined towards agriculture with an emphasis on the development of villages.


cl-Libraone~



Edited 5/13/2004 10:01 am ET ET by cl-libraone

 


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iVillage Member
Registered: 04-16-2003
Sat, 05-15-2004 - 4:06pm
<>

Did he make money personally, or for the government? I too hope they can achieve a stable government so India can grow. It is hard when wealth is not distributed to the poor. It takes time for capitalism to "filter down". Thanks for your post, it is good to here information not from the newspapers.

iVillage Member
Registered: 03-18-2000
Sun, 05-16-2004 - 8:26am

>"she promised that she will give free electricity to all the villages. This is very stupid. Because as such there is scarcity of Electricity everywhere, cities also get regular cuts in electricity, e.g few hours a week power goes of entirely. "<


That was a most generous campaign pledge. Ofcourse one that can't be kept.


I would imagine the

 


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iVillage Member
Registered: 04-16-2003
Sun, 05-16-2004 - 5:27pm
To All:

I groaned when I read what Powell had said to Pakistan and his slight of India in the ATol. Unfortunately, I didn't see Hoagland's column, or I would have posted it. This reminds me of something from Chaos Theory, "a butterfly flaps it wings in Asia and a storm hits the US." (not the exact quote) It is something to contemplate:

Did Bush blunder cause Vajpayee ouster?

IANS



WASHINGTON : A diplomatic blunder by the Bush administration may have contributed to Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's surprise ouster, says noted US columnist Jim Hoagland.

Hoagland says Powell was feted in New Delhi and then travelled to Islamabad , where he stunned the Indians by announcing without warning that the US would soon take the symbolically important step of designating Pakistan a major non-NATO ally.

Hoagland says a personal regret is that the BJP defeat removes from office the "wise and patient" Brajesh Mishra, Vajpayee's national security adviser, who was the key to implementing India 's belated but rapid opening to the world.

That sparked a diplomatic protest and a furore in the Indian media, he says.

Hoagland quotes Bush administration insiders as saying Powell was not deceitful. Instead, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf mousetrapped him into prematurely announcing a policy step that had not received a final green light in Washington and to which Powell had attached little importance.

India 's initial reaction and now its election show how wrong Powell got that, the columnist notes.

Hoagland says it was not the Bush administration's closeness to Vajpayee that hurt him as much as its failure to deliver anything to compensate for the latters surprising support for US bases in Central Asia, missile defence and other previously neuralgic subjects. This failure to reward friends is devastating, the writer notes.

Hoagland says a personal regret is that the BJP defeat removes from office the "wise and patient" Brajesh Mishra, Vajpayee's national security adviser, who was the key to implementing India 's belated but rapid opening to the world.

He, however, notes that positive outcomes - integrating India into the global economy or improving New Delhi 's relations with Washington , for example - may still be attained under the new coalition government to be run by the Congress party.

But the prospects for either are less promising than they would have been under Vajpayee, who was President George Bush's most unlikely strategic partner abroad.

Hoagland notes that there is one obvious conclusion to draw from the results of last week's balloting in the world's largest democracy: Uncle Sam's coattails do not stretch to foreign political leaders this year.

Incumbents abroad with an American connection gain no advantage by brandishing it before voters. They may even pay a price for getting too close to the Bush White House, Hoagland contends.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/679140.cms
















Edited 5/16/2004 5:35 pm ET ET by hayashig

iVillage Member
Registered: 03-18-2000
Sun, 05-16-2004 - 5:54pm

Would the poorer people, that swung the election, have heard the Powell speech?


Would they have caught or been interested in the nuance of foreign policy?

cl-Libraone~

 


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iVillage Member
Registered: 03-18-2000
Mon, 05-17-2004 - 6:40am

Indian markets in turmoil.


Gandhi to stake claim.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/05/17/india.politics/index.html


India's Bombay Stock Exchange has recorded its biggest loss amid concerns over the future of economic reforms under a new coalition government.


Trading was suspended twice Monday, with the key Sensex stock index plummeting almost 16 percent in morning trade to a low of 4227.50 -- the biggest crash in its 129-year history.


In a third trading session, the market trimmed some of the losses but was still down around 7 percent at 2.00 p.m. local time (0830 GMT).


The plunge within the first few minutes of trade continued the market's bleak reaction following the shock victory for Sonia Gandhi's Congress party in the national election on Thursday.


CNN's Ram Ramgopal in New Delhi said the one operative word in India at the moment was "fear," as investors realize that the communist and other leftist parties on whom Gandhi will have to rely to form a government, are against privatization.


While Gandhi has won broad support to become India's next leader, stock and currency markets have been unnerved by the prospect of her governing with the support of left-wing parties. (Investors flee Gandhi's India)


This is despite her Congress party vowing to continue the reforms it started more than a decade ago when it broke India out of socialist-style economics and which were continued by the ousted Bharatiya Janata Party-led coalition.


Gandhi PM claim

Gandhi is to meet with Indian President APJ Abdul Kalam later Monday to stake her claim to becoming the country's next prime minister, party sources said.


Congress supporters agreed to back Gandhi in her bid to lead a multi-party government, Congress leader Manmohan Singh told reporters Sunday.


That means Gandhi faces no more hurdles in her quest to form a government, Singh said after a meeting between the Congress and its potential allies. She is expected to be sworn in Wednesday as prime minister.


Congress' coalition was unanimous in its support for Gandhi as the prime minister, he said.


In last week's general election, Gandhi's party and its allies won 220 seats in Parliament, shy of the 270 needed for a majority.


But the support of left-wing parties and other allies would put Gandhi comfortably into the majority she needs to govern.


Gandhi's bid to become prime minister has drawn scattered protests across the country, most notably from the outgoing ruling Bharatiya Janata Party.


Some BJP members have said said they will never let a foreign-born person become prime minister in the the Hindu-majority country.








vstory.gandhi.residence.ap.jpg
Gandhi is set to meet India's president on Monday to stake her claim as prime minister.

Gandhi was born in Italy and is Catholic.


She would be the first person not born in India to hold the job. Gandhi would also follow in the footsteps of her husband Rajiv, assassinated in 1991 and her mother-in-law Indira, slain in 1984. (Gandhi: Fairy tale and tragedy)


The political maneuvering came after incumbent Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee resigned in a stunning election turnabout, ending nearly six years in power.(Why the backlash?)


The 79-year-old prime minister gambled by calling elections six months early, confident that campaigning on the country's economic progress -- "India Shining" -- would carry him to a fourth term.(India under Vajpayee)


But Gandhi, along with her popular children Rahul and Priyanka, revitalized the Congress party, which was able to galvanize support among millions of poorer Indians in rural areas who have yet to benefit from Vajpayee's reforms.


About 300 million Indians live on less than a dollar a day.


The election was a mammoth undertaking. Balloting was conducted in four stages over three weeks to accommodate more than 650 million eligible voters. (Marathon election)

cl-Libraone~

 


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iVillage Member
Registered: 04-16-2003
Mon, 05-17-2004 - 11:17am
<>

I can't answer that obviously, hoping Palak can. I did see it in the Asian Papers when it occurred. IMO, it was a significant snub. And the conflict between Pakistan and India has been a hot topic for several years. I also remember posting an article about how the advancement in India was increasing hardship on the poor. IMO unrestrained capitalism is always bad for a country because it has no ethical grounding--i.e. the poor get hurg. Powell's snub may have been a contributing factor, alone it did not swing the election--but it is an interesting wrinkle.


Edited 5/17/2004 11:25 am ET ET by hayashig

iVillage Member
Registered: 04-22-2003
Tue, 05-18-2004 - 2:34pm
Hi, I replied above but I forgot to mention that I work for a Telecommunication CO. in Richardson, TX. I am an Engineer, did a MS in EE from UT at Arlington. Live with a Husband who I met at here Univ who is also an Indian and I am also mother of twin boys who are 4 1/2 yo. US is my second home away from home. Originally I am from Gujarat state in India and my Husband is from Maharashtra. My kids speak in Gujarati, Marathi, English and they pretty much understand all hindi, because my husband and I talk in Hindi to each other(Now all they have to learn is Spanish, they have said so themselves,"Mommy now I have to learn Spanish"LOL!!). Among all the corruption and politics, India is very cool with so many different languages and cultures and our festivals and traditions and very rich heritage.
iVillage Member
Registered: 05-06-2003
Tue, 05-18-2004 - 2:54pm
Sweet. My family is from Gujarat too but my Gujarati is pretty bad... I don't get to go to India too often so I don't get to practice too much...

Twin boys... Sounds like a handful. :) But if you live in Texas, they should be able to pick up Spanish in no time. :)

>>Among all the corruption and politics, India is very cool with so many different languages and cultures and our festivals and traditions and very rich heritage.<<

Very true. You forget that sometimes with the news full of poverty and corruption...

iVillage Member
Registered: 03-18-2000
Tue, 05-18-2004 - 2:58pm

Gandhi 'humbly' declines PM job.


Sonia Gandhi has withdrawn her name for consideration as India's next prime minister.


"I must humbly decline this post," she told a meeting of Congress party lawmakers, who reacted angrily to her decision.


"I appeal to you to understand the force of my convictions," Gandhi said, fighting to make herself heard above indignant shouts from her supporters in the central hall of Parliament.


"I request you to accept my decision and to recognize that I will not reverse it. ... It is my inner voice, my conscience."


Gandhi did not say who she wanted to see lead the new government.


More......... http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/05/18/india.politics/index.html

cl-Libraone~

 


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