Overstated stats - Mexico and guns
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| Thu, 04-02-2009 - 3:11pm |
Yes, I know this comes from the evil Fox news, but the numbers speak for themselves. I'd be happy to see references that challenge these numbers.
The Myth of 90 Percent: Only a Small Fraction of Guns in Mexico Come From U.S.
While 90 percent of the guns traced to the U.S. actually originated in the United States, the percent traced to the U.S. is only about 17 percent of the total number of guns reaching Mexico.
By William La Jeunesse and Maxim Lott
FOXNews.com
Thursday, April 02, 2009

FILE: In this Nov. 7, 2008, photo a soldier stands guard during the presentation in Mexico City of arms, captured in the largest seizure of Gulf drug-cartel weapons to date, about 288 assault rifles, 500,000 rounds of ammunition, numerous grenades and several .50-caliber rifles (AP).
EXCLUSIVE: You've heard this shocking "fact" before -- on TV and radio, in newspapers, on the Internet and from the highest politicians in the land: 90 percent of the weapons used to commit crimes in Mexico come from the United States.
-- Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said it to reporters on a flight to Mexico City.
-- CBS newsman Bob Schieffer referred to it while interviewing President Obama.
-- California Sen. Dianne Feinstein said at a Senate hearing: "It is unacceptable to have 90 percent of the guns that are picked up in Mexico and used to shoot judges, police officers and mayors ... come from the United States."
-- William Hoover, assistant director for field operations at the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, testified in the House of Representatives that "there is more than enough evidence to indicate that over 90 percent of the firearms that have either been recovered in, or interdicted in transport to Mexico, originated from various sources within the United States."
There's just one problem with the 90 percent "statistic" and it's a big one:
It's just not true.
In fact, it's not even close. By all accounts, it's probably around 17 percent.
What's true, an ATF spokeswoman told FOXNews.com, in a clarification of the statistic used by her own agency's assistant director, "is that over 90 percent of the traced firearms originate from the U.S."
But a large percentage of the guns recovered in Mexico do not get sent back to the U.S. for tracing, because it is obvious from their markings that they do not come from the U.S.
"Not every weapon seized in Mexico has a serial number on it that would make it traceable, and the U.S. effort to trace weapons really only extends to weapons that have been in the U.S. market," Matt Allen, special agent of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), told FOX News.
Video: Click here to watch more on where the guns come from.
A Look at the Numbers
In 2007-2008, according to ATF Special Agent William Newell, Mexico submitted 11,000 guns to the ATF for tracing. Close to 6,000 were successfully traced -- and of those, 90 percent -- 5,114 to be exact, according to testimony in Congress by William Hoover -- were found to have come from the U.S.
But in those same two years, according to the Mexican government, 29,000 guns were recovered at crime scenes.
In other words, 68 percent of the guns that were recovered were never submitted for tracing. And when you weed out the roughly 6,000 guns that could not be traced from the remaining 32 percent, it means 83 percent of the guns found at crime scenes in Mexico could not be traced to the U.S.
So, if not from the U.S., where do they come from? There are a variety of sources:
-- The Black Market. Mexico is a virtual arms bazaar, with fragmentation grenades from South Korea, AK-47s from China, and shoulder-fired rocket launchers from Spain, Israel and former Soviet bloc manufacturers.
-- Russian crime organizations. Interpol says Russian Mafia groups such as Poldolskaya and Moscow-based Solntsevskaya are actively trafficking drugs and arms in Mexico.
- South America. During the late 1990s, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) established a clandestine arms smuggling and drug trafficking partnership with the Tijuana cartel, according to the Federal Research Division report from the Library of Congress.
-- Asia. According to a 2006 Amnesty International Report, China has provided arms to countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Chinese assault weapons and Korean explosives have been recovered in Mexico.
-- The Mexican Army. More than 150,000 soldiers deserted in the last six years, according to Mexican Congressman Robert Badillo. Many took their weapons with them, including the standard issue M-16 assault rifle made in Belgium.
-- Guatemala. U.S. intelligence agencies say traffickers move immigrants, stolen cars, guns and drugs, including most of America's cocaine, along the porous Mexican-Guatemalan border. On March 27, La Hora, a Guatemalan newspaper, reported that police seized 500 grenades and a load of AK-47s on the border. Police say the cache was transported by a Mexican drug cartel operating out of Ixcan, a border town.
'These Don't Come From El Paso'
Ed Head, a firearms instructor in Arizona who spent 24 years with the U.S. Border Patrol, recently displayed an array of weapons considered "assault rifles" that are similar to those recovered in Mexico, but are unavailable for sale in the U.S.
"These kinds of guns -- the auto versions of these guns -- they are not coming from El Paso," he said. "They are coming from other sources. They are brought in from Guatemala. They are brought in from places like China. They are being diverted from the military. But you don't get these guns from the U.S."
Some guns, he said, "are legitimately shipped to the government of Mexico, by Colt, for example, in the United States. They are approved by the U.S. government for use by the Mexican military service. The guns end up in Mexico that way -- the fully auto versions -- they are not smuggled in across the river."
Many of the fully automatic weapons that have been seized in Mexico cannot be found in the U.S., but they are not uncommon in the Third World.
The Mexican government said it has seized 2,239 grenades in the last two years -- but those grenades and the rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs) are unavailable in U.S. gun shops. The ones used in an attack on the U.S. Consulate in Monterrey in October and a TV station in January were made in South Korea. Almost 70 similar grenades were seized in February in the bottom of a truck entering Mexico from Guatemala.
"Most of these weapons are being smuggled from Central American countries or by sea, eluding U.S. and Mexican monitors who are focused on the smuggling of semi-automatic and conventional weapons purchased from dealers in the U.S. border states of Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and California," according to a report in the Los Angeles Times.
Boatloads of Weapons
So why would the Mexican drug cartels, which last year grossed between $17 billion and $38 billion, bother buying single-shot rifles, and force thousands of unknown "straw" buyers in the U.S. through a government background check, when they can buy boatloads of fully automatic M-16s and assault rifles from China, Israel or South Africa?
Alberto Islas, a security consultant who advises the Mexican government, says the drug cartels are using the Guatemalan border to move black market weapons. Some are left over from the Central American wars the United States helped fight; others, like the grenades and launchers, are South Korean, Israeli and Spanish. Some were legally supplied to the Mexican government; others were sold by corrupt military officers or officials.
The exaggeration of United States "responsibility" for the lawlessness in Mexico extends even beyond the "90-percent" falsehood -- and some Second Amendment activists believe it's designed to promote more restrictive gun-control laws in the U.S.
In a remarkable claim, Auturo Sarukhan, the Mexican ambassador to the U.S., said Mexico seizes 2,000 guns a day from the United States -- 730,000 a year. That's a far cry from the official statistic from the Mexican attorney general's office, which says Mexico seized 29,000 weapons in all of 2007 and 2008.
Chris Cox, spokesman for the National Rifle Association, blames the media and anti-gun politicians in the U.S. for misrepresenting where Mexican weapons come from.
"Reporter after politician after news anchor just disregards the truth on this," Cox said. "The numbers are intentionally used to weaken the Second Amendment."
"The predominant source of guns in Mexico is Central and South America. You also have Russian, Chinese and Israeli guns. It's estimated that over 100,000 soldiers deserted the army to work for the drug cartels, and that ignores all the police. How many of them took their weapons with them?"
But Tom Diaz, senior policy analyst at the Violence Policy Center, called the "90 percent" issue a red herring and said that it should not detract from the effort to stop gun trafficking into Mexico.
"Let's do what we can with what we know," he said. "We know that one hell of a lot of firearms come from the United States because our gun market is wide open."
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martinisnsushi - living the good life since 1963

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Before I got to the end of the article I was thinking to myself....Still, that's a LOT of guns! Then I read the last two paragraphs which pretty much mirrors my thoughts:
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"Let's do what we can with what we know," he said. "We know that one hell of a lot of firearms come from the United States because our gun market is wide open.">>
I find the topic interesting because up here in Canada, we too are facing similar issues with illegal firearms coming from the US for criminal purposes.
http://www.cisc.gc.ca/annual_reports/annual_report_2007/feature_focus_2007_e.html
Introduction
The illicit firearms market in Canada is driven by both individual criminals and members of organized crime. Criminals require firearms to assist in their criminal endeavours, for personal protection, as well as to demonstrate status as observed in the case of street gang members. The illicit drug market tends to drive the demand for illicit firearms as it is highly competitive, extremely profitable and consequently fertile ground for violent disagreements between and within criminal organizations. Firearms used by members of criminal organizations must be acquired through illegal means as Canada’s current legal acquisition and possession controls have been largely successful in preventing members of organized crime from purchasing legal weapons.
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Smuggled Firearms
Smuggled firearms that cross the land border from the United States are a significant source of illegal firearms due in part to its geographic proximity and less restrictive gun control regulations. The ability of criminal entrepreneurs and organizations to smuggle firearms across the Canada-U.S. land border also appears to be greatly influenced by the physical geography between the ports of entry. A number of land border areas are particularly attractive due to the often rough and remote geographical nature of portions of this border area. There are also a multitude of remote unmanned border crossing locations that could be exploited for unauthorized surreptitious cross border movement.
There continue to be five primary sources or methods used by criminals or their organizations to acquire firearms from U.S. sources and divert them for subsequent smuggling attempts into Canada:
1. Licensed U.S. Dealers: A U.S. federally licensed firearms dealer who knowingly or unknowingly sells firearms to individuals who intend to either smuggle or resell firearms to individual criminals or organized crime.
2. Straw Purchasers: A person with illegal intent may use an accomplice, referred to as a straw purchaser, to legally acquire firearms from an U.S. retailer in order to hide his or her own identity. The straw purchaser never intends to actually own the firearms and turns them over to their co-conspirator for subsequent illegal movement and distribution.
3. False Identification: A person, whether prohibited or not, obtains false U.S. identification and uses it to purchase firearms with the intention of reselling or smuggling the weapons.
4. Secondary U.S. Markets: A person purchases firearms at a secondary market (e.g. a gun show, flea market, or through a private sale) with the intention of reselling or smuggling the weapons. Purchases from secondary markets can be made with relative anonymity as they may involve unlicensed sellers who are not required to conduct background checks, or maintain firearms transaction records.
5. Theft: A person steals firearms from a lawful owner, a U.S. retailer, a conveyor (common or contract carrier) or from the mail system, with the intention of reselling or smuggling the weapons.
Study Claims Smuggling Real Culprit in Gun Deaths
A MacKenzie Institute report links the majority of gun deaths to government-ignored smuggling
Brian Barber & Jonathan Bloedow
PARLIAMENT HILL
A recently published report by the Mackenzie Institute, a Toronto-based research centre specializing in issues of organized violence and political instability, says that barely any firearms used in the commission of crimes are legitimately owned; it estimates that "about 75% of handguns and all automatic weapons used for violent crimes in Canada are either smuggled or stolen."
It draws troubling conclusions about the will of Canadian law enforcement agencies to tackle the smuggling problem, adding that, "of guns brought in for this market, perhaps only one in 14 is recovered within a year."
Its research brings into question previous gun control measures, and suggests they might be having unforeseen consequences, concluding that "both violent criminals and otherwise law-abiding citizens are buying handguns off the black market."
The Institute notes that the study, which was intended as an investigation of alcohol and tobacco smuggling, comes at an interesting time, with Justice Minister Alan Rock's Bill C-68 in the midst of hot debate.
Bill C-68 would force the registration of all firearms, expand police authority to search for and seize illegal firearms, create an "open-ended" amendment system for the passage of further "gun control" legislation, and permit the confiscation of weapons by the police without compensation to the owner.
The Institute says that, "there are a number of problem areas in the gun control controversy where information about the black market might be pertinent." It added that, "what we have to say about the black market reinforces the notion that, in their haste to push new legislation through, the Government has the wrong target in its sights."
The Mackenzie Institute's report, which was based on an eight month study of the Canadian firearms black market and drew from over 700 interviews with gun owners, police officers, smugglers, natives and others, also confirms previous reports which suggest that it is exceptionally easy for any citizen to obtain an illegal firearm, and that "anybody can get a pistol in a few days off the street."
Almost 40 percent of the taxi drivers in four major urban centres interviewed for the study said they had been approached by individuals selling handguns. A similar account was reported in The Globe and Mail by a gang member who refused to be identified. He said he could easily obtain a handgun within 24 hours: "Probably less than that, 10 hours. If you know the right people." He continued, saying "Guns are the easiest things to sell in Canada today."
Reservations Big Conduit
The report draws extensively from RCMP information on their efforts to stem the flow of guns while attempting to eliminate the smuggling of other contraband. The majority of their work is centred in and around the Akwesasne, Ganiengeh and Kahnawake Indian reservations in southern Quebec. Reports from the RCMP in June of this year state that it is doubling the strength of the smuggling strike force along the Quebec-United States border. The largest contingent of officers from the newly formed Border Investi gation Branch will be positioned near the Akwesasne Mohawk reserve, a key crossing-point for contraband.
The Institute reports that while the figures on the numbers of homicides and armed robberies in major Canadian centres are stable, the number involving illegal firearms is increasing--despite previous, controversial legal restrictions on firearms.
According to Sgt. Peter Morgan of the Peel Regional Police, "a few years ago, most armed robbery suspects did not use firearms. Indeed, most only claimed to be armed. Now, more robberies than not have a firearm present." The rate steadily increased in those regions studied.
The organization's findings confirm last year's annual report by the Organized Crime Committee for the Criminal Intelligence Service of Canada, which said that, "the demand for and use of illegal weapons on the streets of Canada has increased dramatically."
The Committee found that since firearms are a readily available commodity through both legal and illegal sources in the U.S., weapons smuggling is developing into a serious problem; it is both encouraged and exacerbated by its ties to other organized crime activity, including the trade of illegal cigarettes, alcohol, and drugs.
The Committee also reported the results of Project Gunrunner, a highly successful undercover joint force operation initiated by the Peel Regional Police Intelligence Bureau and involving five other police departments, Canada Customs, the U.S. Customs Service, and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms.
The investigation revealed that most guns used by Canadian criminals are smuggled in from the U.S.--indeed, 16 of 17 guns purchased on the Canadian black market by undercover officers were "hot." A similar operation in Quebec, Project Canon, resulted in the seizure of 42 firearms which had been illegally imported into the province from the U.S.
It was discovered that handguns purchased for $100 in Detroit could be resold for more than $500 in Canada, and that most of the guns purchased in the United States come from legally registered dealers, some of whom have full knowledge the guns will be smuggled into Canada.
http://homepage.usask.ca/~sta575/cdn-firearms/Misc/ott1.html
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Diaz is full of it.
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Before I got to the end of the article I was thinking to myself....Still, that's a LOT of guns!
To move across the border between a country of 300 million people (with over 100 million gun owners) and a country of109 million people? 5000 or 6000 seems like a lot to you?
How many stolen cars do you suppose cross the border each year? How many tons of marijuana, cocaine, etc.
Do Mexican mobs obtain guns illegally in the US? Sure - we have organized crime here, too. But they also get guns from South and central America, Russia, China, Jamaica, Korea, and anywhere else there are organized criminals willing to traffic in black market weapons.
But restricting the right of law abiding US citizens to own
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martinisnsushi - the two most important food groups!
Thanks for posting this.
<<5000 or 6000 seems like a lot to you?>>
Um....Yeah.
I guess it's all relative to one's experience and cultural climate where gun ownership is enshrined in the constitution. I don't have quite the casual familiarity with guns as being integral to the culture. Though I have to tell you, I'm a crack shot because I was in the military reserves for 4 years and have used, disassembled/reassembled, and maintained rifles and SMGs. But that's in a military context where they belong/are expected, not in regular everyday society.
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I imagine a lot and of course that's a problem that needs addressing too. I'm also seriously starting to think that marijuana should be legalized (as its never killed anyone except indirectly as a result of it being a major funding source for criminals, gangs and organized crime). While cars do kill people, I doubt they are being smuggled because they intend to be used specifically to run people over. The guns in fact, support ALL this other stuff....enabling these criminals to wield such tremendous influence and increasing power while they grow their criminal operations reaping huge profits steeped in blood and violence at the expense of others.
Edited 4/3/2009 10:30 am ET by moxysuvous
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That may very well be true.
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No, no, no, Mark. You're not going to suck me into this one....I'm too smart for you (or you're too smart for me....Take your pick ;o)
I'll just watch if you don't mind.
Edited 4/3/2009 9:59 am ET by moxysuvous
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