Is It Or Isn't It?

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Registered: 03-26-2003
Is It Or Isn't It?
1
Thu, 08-20-2009 - 12:04pm

Is the economy improving or not?  This article reads like a roller coaster, up, down, up, down. A zillion people lost their job, but...... a couple people bought a new home so therefore things must be good.  Employment claims are up, but not so much. Huh?

I guess it takes a lot of book smarts to understand the economy, but by gosh you don't need any common sense whatsoever. The only thing holding up the economy right this minute are the savings that companies are getting by decreasing employees and the transferring of investments from point to point to point around the world.


Consumer money can't be counted in there at all. Unemployed and underemployed people don't have money to spend. It's nearly September. About 4 shopping months until Christmas. If retailers thought life sucked last year, they're going to be throwing themselves under a train.


When we became a service-oriented country we shot ourselves in the foot. Service companies are well known for being able to do with fewer and fewer people. Many of the jobs can be done remotely (say, from Pakistan), or they can be combined with other jobs, therefore eliminating positions.


A service oriented market is good for the company, bad for the people. Did we ever see that coming? If we did, we never did anything to stop it. Greed will be the demise of this nation. When everything becomes all about the money there is a complete breakdown of the symbiotic relationship between work and humanity.


But economies are like ladders stuck upright in rising water. If you're standing on the top rung you watch everyone under you drown; how quickly you forget that THEIR rung was dry once, too. And the more who are swept away, the closer the water gets to the top. It's only a matter of time before the ladder is submerged; where do we go from there?


 
New jobless claims rise unexpectedly to 576K



WASHINGTON – The number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly for the second straight week, a sign that jobs remain scarce even as other data show the economy is stabilizing.


Many economists expect the economy to grow at a modest pace in the second half of this year, bringing an end to the longest recession since World War II. But jobs are likely to remain scarce and many analysts worry that persistently high unemployment could cause consumers to hold back on spending, threatening a recovery.


The Labor Department said Thursday the number of new jobless claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 576,000 last week, from a revised figure of 561,000. Wall Street economists expected a drop to 550,000, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters.


Economists closely watch initial claims, which are considered a gauge of layoffs and an indication of companies' willingness to hire new workers.


"Consumer spending is going to have a very difficult time recovering with the labor market as weak as it is," said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc.


The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators rose for a fourth straight month in July, gaining 0.6 percent. That was slightly less than economists expected and a slower rate than in the prior three months.


Still, the Conference Board said its index, which is meant to project economic activity in the next three to six months, suggests the recession has bottomed out and growth in economic activity will begin soon. Six of the 10 indicators that comprise the index increased in July, including employment data and stock prices. Consumer expectations were the biggest negative factor.


Meanwhile, the Mortgage Bankers Association said more than 13 percent of American homeowners with a mortgage are either behind on their payments or in foreclosure, a record tally as the recession leaves more people unemployed. About a third of new foreclosures between April and June were prime, fixed-rate loans, up from one in five a year earlier.


The jobless claims figures are volatile, and had been trending down, after remaining above 600,000 for most of this year. The new report indicates that the labor market is still weak. In a healthy economy, initial claims are usually around 325,000 or below.


The four-week average of initial claims, which smooths out fluctuations, rose for the second straight week to 570,000.


The number of people remaining on the benefit rolls dropped by 2,000 to 6.24 million. Analysts had expected a slight decline. The continuing claims figures lag initial claims by a week.


The stock market rose slightly in morning trading. The Dow Jones industrial average added about 35 points, while broader indices also edged up.


When federal emergency programs are included, the total number of jobless benefit recipients was 9.18 million in the week that ended Aug. 1, the most recent data available. That was down from 9.25 million in the previous week. Congress has added up to 53 extra weeks of benefits on top of the 26 typically provided by the states.


The large number of people remaining on the rolls is an indication that unemployed workers are having a hard time finding new jobs.


Still, layoffs have slowed recently. The department said earlier this month that companies cut 247,000 jobs in July, a large amount but still the smallest number in almost a year.


The unemployment rate dipped to 9.4 percent in July from 9.5 percent, its first drop in 15 months. But many private economists and the Federal Reserve think the rates could top 10 percent by next year.


The recession, which began in December 2007 and is the longest since World War II, has eliminated a net total of 6.7 million jobs.


More job cuts were announced this week. Bethesda, Md.-based defense contractor Lockheed Martin Corp. said it will eliminate about 800 jobs in its space systems division, and San Francisco-based video and audio conferencing company Polycom Inc. said it will cut 3 percent of its 2,600 person work force.

Among the states, Tennessee had the largest increase in claims with 2,525 for the week ended Aug. 8, which it attributed to more layoffs in the transportation equipment, industrial machinery, and rubber and plastics industries. The next largest increases were in North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia and Washington.

California reported the largest drop in claims of 5,635, which it attributed to fewer layoffs in the construction, trade and service industries. Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky and Delaware had the next largest decreases

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Registered: 03-18-2000
Thu, 08-20-2009 - 1:52pm

It's a mixed bag. Much depends on where you live. It took 8-10 years to get into this mess.


9% of all home loans are delinquent
Mortgage lenders say the flood of foreclosures has not yet crested. Highwater mark should come this fall.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/20/real_estate/Mortgage_delinquenciies_keep_rising/?postversion=2009082012


Interactive maps unemployment/forclosures & more...


http://money.cnn.com/news/storysupplement/economy/gapmap/index.htm

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