Karzai: Doubt West Can Defeat Taliban

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Registered: 03-18-2000
Karzai: Doubt West Can Defeat Taliban
22
Sat, 06-12-2010 - 1:27pm
Neither the USSR (1978-1992) or Britains' two wars (1839-1842 & 1878-1880) in Afghanistan were successful & I seriously doubt this present war will reach a successful conclusion.
Karzai Is Said to Doubt West Can Defeat Taliban

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/12/world/asia/12karzai.html?hp


KABUL, Afghanistan — Two senior Afghan officials were showing President Hamid Karzai the evidence of the spectacular rocket attack on a nationwide peace conference earlier this month when Mr. Karzai told them that he believed the Taliban were not responsible.


“The president did not show any interest in the evidence — none — he treated it like a piece of dirt,” said Amrullah Saleh, then the director of the Afghan intelligence service.


Mr. Saleh declined to discuss Mr. Karzai’s reasoning in more detail. But a prominent Afghan with knowledge of the meeting, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that Mr. Karzai suggested in the meeting that it might have been the Americans who carried it out.


Minutes after the exchange, Mr. Saleh and the interior minister, Hanif Atmar, resigned — the most dramatic defection from Mr. Karzai’s government since he came to power nine years ago. Mr. Saleh and Mr. Atmar said they quit because Mr. Karzai made clear that he no longer considered them loyal.


But underlying the tensions, according to Mr. Saleh and Afghan and Western officials, was something more profound: That Mr. Karzai had lost faith in the Americans and NATO to prevail in Afghanistan.


For that reason, Mr. Saleh and other officials said, Mr. Karzai has been pressing to strike his own deal with the Taliban and the country’s archrival, Pakistan, the Taliban’s longtime supporter. According to a former senior Afghan official, Mr. Karzai’s maneuverings involve secret negotiations with the Taliban outside the purview of American and NATO officials.


“The president has lost his confidence in the capability of either the coalition or his own government to protect this country,” Mr. Saleh said in an interview at his home. “President Karzai has never announced that NATO will lose, but the way that he does not proudly own the campaign shows that he doesn’t trust it is working.”


People close to the president say he began to lose confidence in the Americans last summer, after national elections in which independent monitors determined that nearly one million ballots had been stolen on Mr. Karzai’s behalf. The rift worsened in December, when President Obama announced that he intended to begin reducing the number of American troops by the summer of 2011.


“Karzai told me that he can’t trust the Americans to fix the situation here,” said a Western diplomat in Kabul, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “He believes they stole his legitimacy during the elections last year. And then they said publicly that they were going to leave.”


Mr. Karzai could not be reached for comment Friday.


If Mr. Karzai���s resolve to work closely with the United States and use his own army to fight the Taliban is weakening, that could present a problem for Mr. Obama. The American war strategy rests largely on clearing ground held by the Taliban so that Mr. Karzai’s army and government can move in, allowing the Americans to scale back their involvement in an increasingly unpopular and costly war.


Relations with Mr. Karzai have been rocky for some time, and international officials have expressed concern in the past that his decision making can be erratic. Last winter, Mr. Karzai accused NATO in a speech of ferrying Taliban fighters around northern Afghanistan in helicopters. Earlier this year, following criticism by the Obama administration, Mr. Karzai told a group of supporters that he might join the Taliban.


American officials tried to patch up their relationship with Mr. Karzai during his visit to the White House last month. Indeed, on many issues, like initiating contact with some Taliban leaders and persuading its fighters to change sides, Mr. Karzai and the Americans are on the same page.


But their motivations appear to differ starkly. The Americans and their NATO partners are pouring tens of thousands of additional troops into the country to weaken hard-core Taliban and force the group to the bargaining table. Mr. Karzai appears to believe that the American-led offensive cannot work.


At a news conference at the Presidential Palace this week, Mr. Karzai was asked about the Taliban’s role in the June 4 attack on the loya jirga and his faith in NATO. He declined to address either one.


“Who did it?” Mr. Karzai said of the attack. “It’s a question that our security organization can bring and prepare the answer.”


Asked if he had confidence in NATO, Mr. Karzai said he was grateful for the help and said the partnership was “working very, very well.” But he did not answer the question.


“We are continuing to work on improvements all around,” Mr. Karzai said, speaking in English and appearing next to David Cameron, the British prime minister.


A senior NATO official said the resignations of Mr. Atmar and Mr. Saleh, who had strong support from the NATO allies, were “extremely disruptive.”


The official said of Mr. Karzai, “My concern is, is he capable of being a wartime leader?”


The NATO official said that American commanders had given Mr. Karzai a dossier showing overwhelming evidence that the attack on the peace conference had been carried out by fighters loyal to Jalalhuddin Haqqani, one of the main leaders fighting under the Taliban’s umbrella.


“There was no doubt,” the official said.


The resignations of Mr. Saleh and Mr. Atmar revealed a deep fissure among Afghan leaders as to the best way to deal with the Taliban and with their patrons in Pakistan.


Mr. Saleh is a former aide to the late Ahmed Shah Massoud, the legendary commander who fought the Soviet Union and the Taliban. Many of Mr. Massoud’s former lieutenants, mostly ethnic Tajiks and now important leaders in northern Afghanistan, sat out the peace conference. Like Mr. Saleh, they favor a tough approach to negotiating with the Taliban and Pakistan.


Mr. Karzai, like the overwhelming majority of the Taliban, is an ethnic Pashtun. He appears now to favor a more conciliatory approach.


At the end of the loya jirga, Mr. Karzai announced the formation of a commission that would review the case of every Taliban fighter held in custody and release those who were not considered extremely dangerous. The commission, which would be led by several senior members of Mr. Karzai’s government, excluded the National Directorate of Security, the intelligence agency run by Mr. Saleh.


In the interview, Mr. Saleh said he took offense at the exclusion. His primary job is to understand the Taliban, he said; leaving his agency off the commission made him worry that Mr. Karzai might intend to release hardened Taliban fighters.


“His conclusion is — a lot of Taliban have been wrongly detained, they should be released,” Mr. Saleh said. “We are 10 years into the collapse of the Taliban — it means we don’t know who the enemy is. We wrongly detain people.”


Mr. Saleh also criticized the loya jirga. “Here is the meaning of the jirga,” Mr. Saleh said. “I don’t want to fight you. I even open the door to you. It was my mistake to push you into the mountains. The jirga was not a victory for the Afghan state, it was a victory for the Taliban.”


Mr. Karzai has been seeking to build bridges to the Taliban for months. Earlier this year, the president’s brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai, held secret meetings with Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban’s deputy commander, according to a former senior Afghan official.


According to Gen. Hilaluddin Hilal, the deputy interior minister in an earlier Karzai government, Ahmed Wali Karzai and Mr. Baradar met twice in January near Spin Boldak, a town on the border with Pakistan. The meeting was brokered by Mullah Essa Khakrezwal, the Taliban’s shadow governor of Kandahar Province, and Hafez Majid, a senior Taliban intelligence official, General Hilal said.


A Western analyst in Kabul confirmed General Hilal’s account. The senior NATO official said he was unaware of the meeting, as did Mr. Saleh. Ahmed Wali Karzai did not respond to e-mail queries on the meeting.


The resolution of that meeting was not clear, General Hilal said. Mr. Baradar was arrested in late January in a joint Pakistani-American raid in Karachi, Pakistan. But Mr. Karzai’s attempts to negotiate with the Taliban have continued, he said.


“He doesn’t think the Americans can afford to stay,” General Hilal said.


Mr. Saleh said that Mr. Karzai’s strategy also involved a more conciliatory line toward Pakistan. If true, this would amount to a sea change for Mr. Karzai, who has spent his nine years in office regularly accusing the Pakistanis of supporting the Taliban insurgency.


Mr. Saleh says he fears that Afghanistan will be forced into accepting what he called an “undignified deal” with Pakistan that will leave his country in a weakened state.


He said he considered Mr. Karzai a patriot. But he said the president was making a mistake if he planned to rely on Pakistani support. (Pakistani leaders have for years pressed Mr. Karzai to remove Mr. Saleh, whom they see as a hard-liner).


“They are weakening him under the disguise of respecting him. They will embrace a weak Afghan leader, but they will never respect him,” Mr. Saleh said.

 


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iVillage Member
Registered: 10-10-2008
Tue, 06-15-2010 - 12:37am
This has always been a problem for American diplomatic services. We got side tracked from pursuing terrorists and mired ourselves in "nation building" again. Or "allies" are for the most part useless.
And because we are so into police actions with poor basic equipment and "be nice" approach it does not work. Instead these people with those Academy educations have never heard of Timur the Lame? He showed how to do it.
The real reason is Pakistan's fear of India with a huge population advantage. India does have the industrial might and the population to take both countries. But do they have the will? Actually North Korea has a very good army and as mercenaries they would be perfect. That way North Korea could rent it's highly trained divisions just as the Swiss did centuries ago. North Korean economy would rise. North Koreans would have good paying jobs where they could pay for the food that is imported and perhaps a new semi-capitalist outlook!


Edited 6/15/2010 12:38 am ET by xvza
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iVillage Member
Registered: 03-18-2000
Tue, 06-15-2010 - 10:44am

I surely hope N.Korea isn't brought into the mix however well it might improve their economy.


You might be interested in a recent post about Pakistan.....


Losing the Media War in Pakistan


http://messageboards.ivillage.com/n/mb/message.asp?webtag=iv-elinthenews&msg=16998.1&ctx=0

 


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iVillage Member
Registered: 04-27-2010
Tue, 06-15-2010 - 9:24pm
Sounds like the US's usefulness to Karzai is chilling, and vice versa. I wonder if Karzai has thought about aligning himself with the Taliban? If it were not the military leaders making the decisions, the US might consider withdrawing. But wait
iVillage Member
Registered: 04-27-2010
Tue, 06-15-2010 - 9:39pm

Does India have the will?

iVillage Member
Registered: 10-10-2008
Wed, 06-16-2010 - 2:03am
Nk could use the money. India may be pushed into this as the terrorists will not let it go.
What joint country?
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iVillage Member
Registered: 04-27-2010
Fri, 06-18-2010 - 8:15pm

<<What joint country?>>



On the 29 December 1930, Muhammad Iqbal called for an autonomous state in "northwestern India for Indian Muslims". The Muslim League rose to popularity in the late 1930s. Muhammad Ali Jinnah espoused the Two Nation Theory and led the Muslim League to adopt the Lahore Resolution of 1940, demanding the formation of independent states for Muslims in the East and the West of British India. Eventually, a united Pakistan with two wings - West Pakistan and East Pakistan - gained independence from the British, on August 14, 1947.

iVillage Member
Registered: 10-10-2008
Sun, 06-20-2010 - 12:39am
And your point is?
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iVillage Member
Registered: 04-27-2010
Tue, 06-29-2010 - 5:11pm

Why should we expect to defeat the Taliban?


The difference between WWII and Afghanistan: In WWII America had

iVillage Member
Registered: 03-18-2000
Wed, 06-30-2010 - 7:23am
I agree there wont be a "win". Did you think I thought that?
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iVillage Member
Registered: 04-27-2010
Wed, 06-30-2010 - 1:50pm

<< Did you think I thought that?>>


NO! Quite frankly, I think most Americans have fallen into a coma, and accept perpetual war and don't much care. War is routine, normal state of affairs. We don't even remember a goal of winning, or what it would look like.

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