Something I noticed

iVillage Member
Registered: 03-27-2003
Something I noticed
3
Tue, 07-27-2004 - 10:02am
While doing my usual patrol of RR and it occurred to me, people generally move for the economic or social well being of their family. Theoretically, I would assume overall that people will leave areas poorly managed for better ones, so I counted electoral votes of states between how they voted last year vs. how they are projected to vote this year.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/election_2004.htm

Overall, the number of electoral votes is only going up by 1 (from 537 in 2000 to 538 this year), but how those votes are distributed has shifted.

In those states voting republican in 2000 and appearing to vote republican this year, their electoral votes are going up by 6, while the democratic counterparts are going down by 4. Of those states classified as “Toss up” states, those voting republican in the last election are getting 1 additional vote, while those that voted democratic is dropping by 2. Unless I’m mistaken, that’s about 2 million voters.

Another interesting note is that for all the talk of “Worst president ever” and polarization, not a single state has “jumped ship”, meaning no state voting republican last year has moved to the democratic side and no state voting democratic last year has moved to the republican side.

I just found it interesting that when people are afforded the opportunity (at least over the last 4 years), they have chosen to move to states governed from the right.

iVillage Member
Registered: 06-17-2004
Tue, 07-27-2004 - 12:20pm

Interesting post; very insightful.


I remember reading something about how, for

Renee ~~~

iVillage Member
Registered: 04-16-2004
Tue, 07-27-2004 - 4:47pm
Interesting.

I wonder if the politics of the state has that much to do with it.

iVillage Member
Registered: 03-27-2003
Tue, 08-03-2004 - 10:56am
My presumption is that it is the secondary effects of politics. People will not move because an area is democratic or republican, but I believe they will move to areas with higher economic development and so forth. IMO, those tend to be the states that vote conservative (especially during periods of recession;).