New Zogby analysis and polls

iVillage Member
Registered: 03-26-2003
New Zogby analysis and polls
20
Fri, 07-30-2004 - 5:57pm
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=849

The Zogby poll taken during the convention shows Kerry leading 48% to 43%. Detailed

analysis by constituent groups below.



Released: July 30, 2004

The Race Is On: An Analysis of the Post-Convention Zogby Poll By John Zogby and

Christopher Conroy



The most recent Zogby poll shows deeper trouble for President George W. Bush

beyond just the horserace. Mr. Bush has fallen in key areas while Senator John Kerry

has shored up numerous constituencies in his base. The Bush team’s attempted outreach

to base Democratic and swing constituency has shown to be a failure thus far, limiting his

potential growth in the electorate.

The most important group in this election now is the undecideds and Mr. Bush’s standing

among them is weak. He is generally well liked among the undecideds, having a strong

favorability (56%), but his job performance is another story. Only 32%

approve of Bush’s job in office and only 31% believe the country is headed in the

right direction. The undecideds are not yet sold on Mr. Kerry, with only 49% having a

favorable opinion of him. But Mr. Kerry can still sell his message to them: over a quarter

(28%) are either not familiar enough or are not sure of their opinion yet. These undecided

voters are generally dissatisfied with the President, but are still not acquainted enough

with the Senator from Massachusetts to support him.

The Bush campaign’s efforts to court voters in the Hispanic, Jewish, and Catholic

communities seem to have fallen flat. Mr. Kerry is leading Mr. Bush by a similar

margin to that which former Vice-President Al Gore won among Jewish voters in 2000.

Mr. Bush is also running far behind his 2000 Hispanic total, with only 19% of the

Hispanic voters supporting him, while Mr. Kerry is beating Mr. Gore’s total with 69%.

Mr. Kerry is also running very strong among Catholics, topping Mr. Bush, 52% to 37%,

showing that not only has Bush’s courting of them failed, but his use of wedge issues like

gay marriage and partial birth abortion have failed to separate Catholic voters from Kerry.

The Senator’s lead among Catholics is similar to the Clinton margins of the 1990s.

Mr. Bush has also shown weakness in what is considered to be his best region, the South.

While Kerry’s choice of Senator John Edwards gives him his biggest boost, his economic

populism and courting of veterans are also key in his eroding of Mr. Bush’s support. Not

only has Kerry now come to a tie with Bush in favorability in the South (55% for

both), the Kerry-Edwards ticket has pulled ahead, 48% to 46% in the South.

President Bush’s job performance is down to only 44% in the South, and only 43%

of Southerners think the country is headed in the right direction.

Mr. Kerry is also performing well in Blue states, among Young voters and among Single

voters. In the Blue states, Mr. Kerry is winning 50% to 38%, while in the Red States,

Mr. Bush is only winning 48% to 46%. Among Single voters, Mr. Kerry is winning

huge by a total of 69% to 19%. And among young voters – 18-29 year olds – a group

Al Gore only won by 2 points in 2000, Kerry is winning in a landslide, 53% to 33%.

There are three factors contributing to Senator Kerry’s lead in the electorate; first

is President Bush’s eroding base, second is his failure in outreach to swing groups

and base Democratic constituencies, and third is Mr. Kerry’s strengthening of his

base. Mr. Kerry also has the potential to open a bigger lead in two areas. First, among the

undecided voters, if Mr. Kerry can sell himself as a viable alternative to Mr. Bush, he

stands to make large gains amongst the small, but significant chuck of undecideds.

Second is in the turnout arena, Mr. Kerry’s large leads amongst Hispanics – who will

potentially make up a great portion of the electorate than they did in 2000 – and young

voters – who numerous non-partisan groups like Rock the Vote and MTV are targeting –

will stand to boost his total share of the vote with every point their turnout increases. Mr.

Kerry is showing a 2-to-1 lead (50% to 25%) amongst voters who didn’t vote in

2000, while winning three-quarters (75%) of Ralph Nader’s voters and stealing

twice as many (8% to 4%) of Mr. Bush voters in 2000 than Bush is stealing of Gore

voters in 2000.

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iVillage Member
Registered: 04-16-2004
Fri, 07-30-2004 - 9:42pm
If I were Kerry, I would be worried as this means he only got a 3 point bounce, with a traditional bounce usually in the double digits.
iVillage Member
Registered: 03-26-2003
Fri, 07-30-2004 - 11:35pm
Kerry is doing GREAT. First of all, these polls were taken before Kerry's awesome speech. I'm sure he will get a few more points now that the American people were finally able to learn a little about him and see how presidential he looks and behaves.

In addition to that, usually the challenger is BEHIND the incumbent prior to their convention and then they get a big bounce. However, Kerry was tied and slightly ahead of Bush prior to his convention. In addition to that the pundits already stated that Kerry will not get a huge bounce because the pool of undecideds is much smaller than it usually is. So Kerry is doing just fine. You should worry about your candidate.

Edited 7/30/2004 11:41 pm ET ET by happy2beamom2001


Edited 7/30/2004 11:44 pm ET ET by happy2beamom2001

Avatar for schifferle
iVillage Member
Registered: 03-27-2003
Sat, 07-31-2004 - 7:50am
What me worry?...not. ...BUT just in case I should've worried & Kerry is elected (my crystal ball is broken & polls don't mean much at this point), I expect all our problems solved in 30 days. ;-) Sounds like he's promising a Democrat utopia immediately after election.


Edited 7/31/2004 7:51 am ET ET by schifferle
iVillage Member
Registered: 04-08-2003
Sat, 07-31-2004 - 10:05am
Blah Bleh, Blah Bleh, Poll numbers:

Kerry ahead this week, Bush ahead the next week. Head to head polls are predicative of nothing.

Instead, look to these: What's Bush's approval rating. "Do you feel the country is headed in the right direction?"

In 1992, Bush/Clinton were still in a statistical tie on Election day.

iVillage Member
Registered: 04-08-2003
Sat, 07-31-2004 - 10:06am
--

If I were Kerry, I would be worried as this means he only got a 3 point bounce, with a traditional bounce usually in the double digits.

--

In traditional elections, there's double digits to spare in the electorate.

iVillage Member
Registered: 04-08-2003
Sat, 07-31-2004 - 10:07am
Yeah, we may not know what Kerry will do, or what he will or will not produce.

Luckily, it doesn't really matter. It's what we KNOW BUSH WILL DO that counts. That's why some 60% of those polled are constantly showing a want for change.

Avatar for schifferle
iVillage Member
Registered: 03-27-2003
Sat, 07-31-2004 - 11:32am
<< It's what we KNOW BUSH WILL DO that counts. >>

That's why I'll vote for him. Mind you, I'm not 1000% behind him on everything, but I really worry about Kerry at the helm with the WOT. Bush spends too much domestically, Kerry will be much worse from all indicators that I can see. Then there's Kerry's Senate voting record... Wish Reagan was alive & well. Would want to hear his perspective on things. Oh, well. Just hope people get out & vote. Not enough people do & those that don't should be ashamed.

iVillage Member
Registered: 04-08-2003
Sat, 07-31-2004 - 11:38am
Then why do we not hear ALL THESE REASONS TO VOTE FOR BUSH?

Why is it a constant attempt to discredit Kerry and not one that honors the administrations accomplishments and achievements from 2001 - Present?

When it comes to voting for President, I have voted republican in every race since 1984, Except 1996 where Perot got my vote, dole just flat out sucked!

So, while leaning left I have observed the Bush/Cheney campaign ads very carefully, yet they refuse to say why I should vote for them and instead rely on a consistantly misleading campaign to discredit Kerry.

Bush and his supporters need to stop running their mouths and START running the country.

iVillage Member
Registered: 04-16-2004
Sat, 07-31-2004 - 4:56pm
Good point......I did notice that there were usually more undecided voters historically.

Well as you pointed out in another post....this week Kerry gets a bounce...next week Bush does..and so on and so on.

I am still predicting that this is going to be as close on the Electoral level as 2000.

iVillage Member
Registered: 06-17-2004
Sun, 08-01-2004 - 10:42pm
In a follow up survey, even that measy bounce went flat, & he was right back where he started. Gallop also showed no bounce and one poll (Newsweek?) showed the DNC gave Bush one of 4-5 pts.

Renee ~~~

Renee ~~~

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