New Zogby analysis and polls
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| Fri, 07-30-2004 - 5:57pm |
The Zogby poll taken during the convention shows Kerry leading 48% to 43%. Detailed
analysis by constituent groups below.
Released: July 30, 2004
The Race Is On: An Analysis of the Post-Convention Zogby Poll By John Zogby and
Christopher Conroy
The most recent Zogby poll shows deeper trouble for President George W. Bush
beyond just the horserace. Mr. Bush has fallen in key areas while Senator John Kerry
has shored up numerous constituencies in his base. The Bush team’s attempted outreach
to base Democratic and swing constituency has shown to be a failure thus far, limiting his
potential growth in the electorate.
The most important group in this election now is the undecideds and Mr. Bush’s standing
among them is weak. He is generally well liked among the undecideds, having a strong
favorability (56%), but his job performance is another story. Only 32%
approve of Bush’s job in office and only 31% believe the country is headed in the
right direction. The undecideds are not yet sold on Mr. Kerry, with only 49% having a
favorable opinion of him. But Mr. Kerry can still sell his message to them: over a quarter
(28%) are either not familiar enough or are not sure of their opinion yet. These undecided
voters are generally dissatisfied with the President, but are still not acquainted enough
with the Senator from Massachusetts to support him.
The Bush campaign’s efforts to court voters in the Hispanic, Jewish, and Catholic
communities seem to have fallen flat. Mr. Kerry is leading Mr. Bush by a similar
margin to that which former Vice-President Al Gore won among Jewish voters in 2000.
Mr. Bush is also running far behind his 2000 Hispanic total, with only 19% of the
Hispanic voters supporting him, while Mr. Kerry is beating Mr. Gore’s total with 69%.
Mr. Kerry is also running very strong among Catholics, topping Mr. Bush, 52% to 37%,
showing that not only has Bush’s courting of them failed, but his use of wedge issues like
gay marriage and partial birth abortion have failed to separate Catholic voters from Kerry.
The Senator’s lead among Catholics is similar to the Clinton margins of the 1990s.
Mr. Bush has also shown weakness in what is considered to be his best region, the South.
While Kerry’s choice of Senator John Edwards gives him his biggest boost, his economic
populism and courting of veterans are also key in his eroding of Mr. Bush’s support. Not
only has Kerry now come to a tie with Bush in favorability in the South (55% for
both), the Kerry-Edwards ticket has pulled ahead, 48% to 46% in the South.
President Bush’s job performance is down to only 44% in the South, and only 43%
of Southerners think the country is headed in the right direction.
Mr. Kerry is also performing well in Blue states, among Young voters and among Single
voters. In the Blue states, Mr. Kerry is winning 50% to 38%, while in the Red States,
Mr. Bush is only winning 48% to 46%. Among Single voters, Mr. Kerry is winning
huge by a total of 69% to 19%. And among young voters – 18-29 year olds – a group
Al Gore only won by 2 points in 2000, Kerry is winning in a landslide, 53% to 33%.
There are three factors contributing to Senator Kerry’s lead in the electorate; first
is President Bush’s eroding base, second is his failure in outreach to swing groups
and base Democratic constituencies, and third is Mr. Kerry’s strengthening of his
base. Mr. Kerry also has the potential to open a bigger lead in two areas. First, among the
undecided voters, if Mr. Kerry can sell himself as a viable alternative to Mr. Bush, he
stands to make large gains amongst the small, but significant chuck of undecideds.
Second is in the turnout arena, Mr. Kerry’s large leads amongst Hispanics – who will
potentially make up a great portion of the electorate than they did in 2000 – and young
voters – who numerous non-partisan groups like Rock the Vote and MTV are targeting –
will stand to boost his total share of the vote with every point their turnout increases. Mr.
Kerry is showing a 2-to-1 lead (50% to 25%) amongst voters who didn’t vote in
2000, while winning three-quarters (75%) of Ralph Nader’s voters and stealing
twice as many (8% to 4%) of Mr. Bush voters in 2000 than Bush is stealing of Gore
voters in 2000.

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In addition to that, usually the challenger is BEHIND the incumbent prior to their convention and then they get a big bounce. However, Kerry was tied and slightly ahead of Bush prior to his convention. In addition to that the pundits already stated that Kerry will not get a huge bounce because the pool of undecideds is much smaller than it usually is. So Kerry is doing just fine. You should worry about your candidate.
Edited 7/30/2004 11:41 pm ET ET by happy2beamom2001
Edited 7/30/2004 11:44 pm ET ET by happy2beamom2001
Edited 7/31/2004 7:51 am ET ET by schifferle
Kerry ahead this week, Bush ahead the next week. Head to head polls are predicative of nothing.
Instead, look to these: What's Bush's approval rating. "Do you feel the country is headed in the right direction?"
In 1992, Bush/Clinton were still in a statistical tie on Election day.
If I were Kerry, I would be worried as this means he only got a 3 point bounce, with a traditional bounce usually in the double digits.
--
In traditional elections, there's double digits to spare in the electorate.
Luckily, it doesn't really matter. It's what we KNOW BUSH WILL DO that counts. That's why some 60% of those polled are constantly showing a want for change.
That's why I'll vote for him. Mind you, I'm not 1000% behind him on everything, but I really worry about Kerry at the helm with the WOT. Bush spends too much domestically, Kerry will be much worse from all indicators that I can see. Then there's Kerry's Senate voting record... Wish Reagan was alive & well. Would want to hear his perspective on things. Oh, well. Just hope people get out & vote. Not enough people do & those that don't should be ashamed.
Why is it a constant attempt to discredit Kerry and not one that honors the administrations accomplishments and achievements from 2001 - Present?
When it comes to voting for President, I have voted republican in every race since 1984, Except 1996 where Perot got my vote, dole just flat out sucked!
So, while leaning left I have observed the Bush/Cheney campaign ads very carefully, yet they refuse to say why I should vote for them and instead rely on a consistantly misleading campaign to discredit Kerry.
Bush and his supporters need to stop running their mouths and START running the country.
Well as you pointed out in another post....this week Kerry gets a bounce...next week Bush does..and so on and so on.
I am still predicting that this is going to be as close on the Electoral level as 2000.
Renee ~~~
Renee ~~~
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