New Zogby analysis and polls

iVillage Member
Registered: 03-26-2003
New Zogby analysis and polls
20
Fri, 07-30-2004 - 5:57pm
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=849

The Zogby poll taken during the convention shows Kerry leading 48% to 43%. Detailed

analysis by constituent groups below.



Released: July 30, 2004

The Race Is On: An Analysis of the Post-Convention Zogby Poll By John Zogby and

Christopher Conroy



The most recent Zogby poll shows deeper trouble for President George W. Bush

beyond just the horserace. Mr. Bush has fallen in key areas while Senator John Kerry

has shored up numerous constituencies in his base. The Bush team’s attempted outreach

to base Democratic and swing constituency has shown to be a failure thus far, limiting his

potential growth in the electorate.

The most important group in this election now is the undecideds and Mr. Bush’s standing

among them is weak. He is generally well liked among the undecideds, having a strong

favorability (56%), but his job performance is another story. Only 32%

approve of Bush’s job in office and only 31% believe the country is headed in the

right direction. The undecideds are not yet sold on Mr. Kerry, with only 49% having a

favorable opinion of him. But Mr. Kerry can still sell his message to them: over a quarter

(28%) are either not familiar enough or are not sure of their opinion yet. These undecided

voters are generally dissatisfied with the President, but are still not acquainted enough

with the Senator from Massachusetts to support him.

The Bush campaign’s efforts to court voters in the Hispanic, Jewish, and Catholic

communities seem to have fallen flat. Mr. Kerry is leading Mr. Bush by a similar

margin to that which former Vice-President Al Gore won among Jewish voters in 2000.

Mr. Bush is also running far behind his 2000 Hispanic total, with only 19% of the

Hispanic voters supporting him, while Mr. Kerry is beating Mr. Gore’s total with 69%.

Mr. Kerry is also running very strong among Catholics, topping Mr. Bush, 52% to 37%,

showing that not only has Bush’s courting of them failed, but his use of wedge issues like

gay marriage and partial birth abortion have failed to separate Catholic voters from Kerry.

The Senator’s lead among Catholics is similar to the Clinton margins of the 1990s.

Mr. Bush has also shown weakness in what is considered to be his best region, the South.

While Kerry’s choice of Senator John Edwards gives him his biggest boost, his economic

populism and courting of veterans are also key in his eroding of Mr. Bush’s support. Not

only has Kerry now come to a tie with Bush in favorability in the South (55% for

both), the Kerry-Edwards ticket has pulled ahead, 48% to 46% in the South.

President Bush’s job performance is down to only 44% in the South, and only 43%

of Southerners think the country is headed in the right direction.

Mr. Kerry is also performing well in Blue states, among Young voters and among Single

voters. In the Blue states, Mr. Kerry is winning 50% to 38%, while in the Red States,

Mr. Bush is only winning 48% to 46%. Among Single voters, Mr. Kerry is winning

huge by a total of 69% to 19%. And among young voters – 18-29 year olds – a group

Al Gore only won by 2 points in 2000, Kerry is winning in a landslide, 53% to 33%.

There are three factors contributing to Senator Kerry’s lead in the electorate; first

is President Bush’s eroding base, second is his failure in outreach to swing groups

and base Democratic constituencies, and third is Mr. Kerry’s strengthening of his

base. Mr. Kerry also has the potential to open a bigger lead in two areas. First, among the

undecided voters, if Mr. Kerry can sell himself as a viable alternative to Mr. Bush, he

stands to make large gains amongst the small, but significant chuck of undecideds.

Second is in the turnout arena, Mr. Kerry’s large leads amongst Hispanics – who will

potentially make up a great portion of the electorate than they did in 2000 – and young

voters – who numerous non-partisan groups like Rock the Vote and MTV are targeting –

will stand to boost his total share of the vote with every point their turnout increases. Mr.

Kerry is showing a 2-to-1 lead (50% to 25%) amongst voters who didn’t vote in

2000, while winning three-quarters (75%) of Ralph Nader’s voters and stealing

twice as many (8% to 4%) of Mr. Bush voters in 2000 than Bush is stealing of Gore

voters in 2000.

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iVillage Member
Registered: 04-16-2004
Wed, 08-04-2004 - 11:42am
I am sticking to my original theory that unless something major happens to affect either candidate before November, this is going to be a very long election night again, with the margin in E.C. votes close yet again.

If Bush does get re-elected, he could be re-elected by winning the E.C. vote and again losing the popular vote (which most polls are tallying anyway).

In order to get an accurate poll, you would have to have Gallup or Zogby or one of the major polling establishments do a poll of roughly 3,000 voters in each state, to get a real picture of how this election is shaping up.


If you go by the NYT and LA Time and Washinton Post polls, you have to remember that these are local polls, and the people being polled are more Democratic than Reublican in these areas.

iVillage Member
Registered: 04-08-2003
Wed, 08-04-2004 - 11:45am
If you want a good gauge, look at:

Bush's Approval rating.

If people think the country is headed in the right direction.

I've said it once and 20,000 times over.

In 1992, Clinton/Bush were tied on election day. If that doesn't tell you about polls, nothing will.

iVillage Member
Registered: 06-17-2004
Wed, 08-04-2004 - 12:02pm
<<If you want a good gauge, look at:

Bush's Approval rating.
If people think the country is headed in the right direction.

I've said it once and 20,000 times over.

In 1992, Clinton/Bush were tied on election day. If that doesn't tell you about polls, nothing will.>>


Right track/wrong track isn't a good indicator. In '96 Clintons was in the 30s right up until the election which he won in a landslide.

Renee ~~~

Renee ~~~

iVillage Member
Registered: 04-08-2003
Wed, 08-04-2004 - 12:17pm
--

Right track/wrong track isn't a good indicator. In '96 Clintons was in the 30s right up until the election which he won in a landslide.

--

What is Clinton's right side/wrong side?

Clinton never had an approval rating that low, especially in 1996 so let's see:

CNN says in 10/1996, 53% believed things are no worse than other times.

I am unable to find that information on Zogby and Gallup, pretty old data. How about posting a link to where you saw this?

iVillage Member
Registered: 04-16-2004
Wed, 08-04-2004 - 9:35pm
I look at Bush's numbers and if I compare them to Kerry, if I am in the Kerry camp I am getting close to panic mode right about now.


If you read the post I had from the Washington Post which detailed their polls, even though Bush had a lead (within the margin of error) it was the other itms in the poll that were interesting, as most people dont like Kerry. It seems their numbers are very similar.

iVillage Member
Registered: 04-08-2003
Thu, 08-05-2004 - 9:01am
With Bush's approval rating under 50 and statisfaction with the country just around 40, you think Kerry's camp is in panic mode?

That is FUNNY!

I guess that's the optimism going around :)

iVillage Member
Registered: 04-16-2004
Fri, 08-06-2004 - 4:30pm
Why does Kerry not have a larger lead in ANY poll then?

Not even in the LA Times or NY Times poll does Kerry have a lead outside the margin of error. This is my point.

If the country really were that upset with George Bush and liked Kerry so much, the polls (even though it is early) would reflect it, and Kerry should have a double digit lead on Bush. Heck John Zogby, and Scott Rasmussen both said the same thing I just did.

iVillage Member
Registered: 06-17-2004
Fri, 08-06-2004 - 5:47pm
<

CNN says in 10/1996, 53% believed things are no worse than other times.

I am unable to find that information on Zogby and Gallup, pretty old data. How about posting a link to where you saw this? >>


Is Mother Jones good enough for you?


'Bill Clinton's approval ratings were just as bad in July 1996, and he went on to win by a landslide.' http://www.motherjones.com/news/special_reports/2004/06/05_403.html

Renee ~~~

Renee ~~~

iVillage Member
Registered: 04-16-2004
Mon, 08-09-2004 - 12:40pm
Clinton's lowest approval rating was apparently 37%.

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0KVD/is_1_3/ai_109025096/pg_4

I used to have a link to all of the Presidents ratings on a monthly basis from FDR, but cannot find it.....

iVillage Member
Registered: 02-23-2004
Mon, 08-09-2004 - 1:08pm


I agree. Unfortunately in the minds of a lot of people (the fence sitters anyway) it seems to be a choice between bad, or worse. The election will be decided by the debates and by how things are going in October and November. The economy will show ebbs and flows, the situation in Iraq will shift between improving and deteriorating, we may be attacked by al quaeda, we may capture OBL. In my opinion today's polls are entirely meaningless, particularly when you consider that the margins are largely statistically insignificant.

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