New Zogby analysis and polls
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| Fri, 07-30-2004 - 5:57pm |
The Zogby poll taken during the convention shows Kerry leading 48% to 43%. Detailed
analysis by constituent groups below.
Released: July 30, 2004
The Race Is On: An Analysis of the Post-Convention Zogby Poll By John Zogby and
Christopher Conroy
The most recent Zogby poll shows deeper trouble for President George W. Bush
beyond just the horserace. Mr. Bush has fallen in key areas while Senator John Kerry
has shored up numerous constituencies in his base. The Bush team’s attempted outreach
to base Democratic and swing constituency has shown to be a failure thus far, limiting his
potential growth in the electorate.
The most important group in this election now is the undecideds and Mr. Bush’s standing
among them is weak. He is generally well liked among the undecideds, having a strong
favorability (56%), but his job performance is another story. Only 32%
approve of Bush’s job in office and only 31% believe the country is headed in the
right direction. The undecideds are not yet sold on Mr. Kerry, with only 49% having a
favorable opinion of him. But Mr. Kerry can still sell his message to them: over a quarter
(28%) are either not familiar enough or are not sure of their opinion yet. These undecided
voters are generally dissatisfied with the President, but are still not acquainted enough
with the Senator from Massachusetts to support him.
The Bush campaign’s efforts to court voters in the Hispanic, Jewish, and Catholic
communities seem to have fallen flat. Mr. Kerry is leading Mr. Bush by a similar
margin to that which former Vice-President Al Gore won among Jewish voters in 2000.
Mr. Bush is also running far behind his 2000 Hispanic total, with only 19% of the
Hispanic voters supporting him, while Mr. Kerry is beating Mr. Gore’s total with 69%.
Mr. Kerry is also running very strong among Catholics, topping Mr. Bush, 52% to 37%,
showing that not only has Bush’s courting of them failed, but his use of wedge issues like
gay marriage and partial birth abortion have failed to separate Catholic voters from Kerry.
The Senator’s lead among Catholics is similar to the Clinton margins of the 1990s.
Mr. Bush has also shown weakness in what is considered to be his best region, the South.
While Kerry’s choice of Senator John Edwards gives him his biggest boost, his economic
populism and courting of veterans are also key in his eroding of Mr. Bush’s support. Not
only has Kerry now come to a tie with Bush in favorability in the South (55% for
both), the Kerry-Edwards ticket has pulled ahead, 48% to 46% in the South.
President Bush’s job performance is down to only 44% in the South, and only 43%
of Southerners think the country is headed in the right direction.
Mr. Kerry is also performing well in Blue states, among Young voters and among Single
voters. In the Blue states, Mr. Kerry is winning 50% to 38%, while in the Red States,
Mr. Bush is only winning 48% to 46%. Among Single voters, Mr. Kerry is winning
huge by a total of 69% to 19%. And among young voters – 18-29 year olds – a group
Al Gore only won by 2 points in 2000, Kerry is winning in a landslide, 53% to 33%.
There are three factors contributing to Senator Kerry’s lead in the electorate; first
is President Bush’s eroding base, second is his failure in outreach to swing groups
and base Democratic constituencies, and third is Mr. Kerry’s strengthening of his
base. Mr. Kerry also has the potential to open a bigger lead in two areas. First, among the
undecided voters, if Mr. Kerry can sell himself as a viable alternative to Mr. Bush, he
stands to make large gains amongst the small, but significant chuck of undecideds.
Second is in the turnout arena, Mr. Kerry’s large leads amongst Hispanics – who will
potentially make up a great portion of the electorate than they did in 2000 – and young
voters – who numerous non-partisan groups like Rock the Vote and MTV are targeting –
will stand to boost his total share of the vote with every point their turnout increases. Mr.
Kerry is showing a 2-to-1 lead (50% to 25%) amongst voters who didn’t vote in
2000, while winning three-quarters (75%) of Ralph Nader’s voters and stealing
twice as many (8% to 4%) of Mr. Bush voters in 2000 than Bush is stealing of Gore
voters in 2000.

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If Bush does get re-elected, he could be re-elected by winning the E.C. vote and again losing the popular vote (which most polls are tallying anyway).
In order to get an accurate poll, you would have to have Gallup or Zogby or one of the major polling establishments do a poll of roughly 3,000 voters in each state, to get a real picture of how this election is shaping up.
If you go by the NYT and LA Time and Washinton Post polls, you have to remember that these are local polls, and the people being polled are more Democratic than Reublican in these areas.
Bush's Approval rating.
If people think the country is headed in the right direction.
I've said it once and 20,000 times over.
In 1992, Clinton/Bush were tied on election day. If that doesn't tell you about polls, nothing will.
Bush's Approval rating.
If people think the country is headed in the right direction.
I've said it once and 20,000 times over.
In 1992, Clinton/Bush were tied on election day. If that doesn't tell you about polls, nothing will.>>
Right track/wrong track isn't a good indicator. In '96 Clintons was in the 30s right up until the election which he won in a landslide.
Renee ~~~
Renee ~~~
Right track/wrong track isn't a good indicator. In '96 Clintons was in the 30s right up until the election which he won in a landslide.
--
What is Clinton's right side/wrong side?
Clinton never had an approval rating that low, especially in 1996 so let's see:
CNN says in 10/1996, 53% believed things are no worse than other times.
I am unable to find that information on Zogby and Gallup, pretty old data. How about posting a link to where you saw this?
If you read the post I had from the Washington Post which detailed their polls, even though Bush had a lead (within the margin of error) it was the other itms in the poll that were interesting, as most people dont like Kerry. It seems their numbers are very similar.
That is FUNNY!
I guess that's the optimism going around :)
Not even in the LA Times or NY Times poll does Kerry have a lead outside the margin of error. This is my point.
If the country really were that upset with George Bush and liked Kerry so much, the polls (even though it is early) would reflect it, and Kerry should have a double digit lead on Bush. Heck John Zogby, and Scott Rasmussen both said the same thing I just did.
CNN says in 10/1996, 53% believed things are no worse than other times.
I am unable to find that information on Zogby and Gallup, pretty old data. How about posting a link to where you saw this? >>
Is Mother Jones good enough for you?
'Bill Clinton's approval ratings were just as bad in July 1996, and he went on to win by a landslide.' http://www.motherjones.com/news/special_reports/2004/06/05_403.html
Renee ~~~
Renee ~~~
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0KVD/is_1_3/ai_109025096/pg_4
I used to have a link to all of the Presidents ratings on a monthly basis from FDR, but cannot find it.....
I agree. Unfortunately in the minds of a lot of people (the fence sitters anyway) it seems to be a choice between bad, or worse. The election will be decided by the debates and by how things are going in October and November. The economy will show ebbs and flows, the situation in Iraq will shift between improving and deteriorating, we may be attacked by al quaeda, we may capture OBL. In my opinion today's polls are entirely meaningless, particularly when you consider that the margins are largely statistically insignificant.
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