Keep an eye on Florida
Find a Conversation
| Tue, 08-24-2004 - 8:18am |
Bush and Kerry in virtual dead heat among likely voters
by Lydia Saad
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll in Florida confirms the findings of Gallup's previous survey in that state, conducted in July, showing a very close race between President George W. Bush and Democratic candidate John Kerry. According to the Aug. 20-22 survey, Bush currently leads Kerry among likely voters in Florida by a slight, but not statistically significant margin: 48% to 46%. Independent candidate Ralph Nader, who is waiting for papers to be filed on his behalf by the Florida Reform Party to be included on the Florida election ballot, garners 2%.
When Nader voters are asked whom they would choose in the event their candidate does not earn a spot on the Florida ballot, Kerry picks up one point, making the race virtually tied at 48% for Bush and 47% for Kerry.
With the number of Republicans and Democrats falling into Gallup's likely voter pool running about even, Bush's slight lead in Florida is mostly owed to the fact that the percentage of Republicans supporting Bush (90%) is higher than the percentage of Democrats supporting Kerry (84%). But that advantage is precarious because political independents favor Kerry by a rather strong margin: 51% to 36%.
The poll also suggests that Bush performs slightly better among men than women in the Sunshine State. Mirroring the gender break seen in July, women favor Kerry by a 2-point margin, 49% to 47%, while men favor Bush by 5 points, 49% to 44%. In July women favored Kerry by 3 points -- 50% to 47% -- while men favored Bush by 10 points -- 53% to 43%.
Also, Kerry leads in southern Florida, while Bush has a strong hold on central and northern Florida.
___________________________
Let's hope they have their voting system straightened out by now. I do not want to see a repeat of 2000.

Especially since the double registered voters will be taken care of, and the networks will not erroneously call the state for either candidate while the polls in the state are still open for another hour, etc, etc, etc....