Why?
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Why?
| Mon, 08-30-2004 - 9:48pm |
Why is Maureen Dowd distancing herself from Kerry?
http://althouse.blogspot.com/2004_08_22_althouse_archive.html#109370767230999001
Why is William Raspberry wondering if 'Anybody but Bush' can win?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A45419-2004Aug29.html
Why is Tom Daschle hugging George W?
http://www.drudgereport.com/dnc69.htm
Renee ~~~

Because there is "HUGE HUGE HUGE MOVEMENT IN ABCNEWSWASHPOST POLL: The nefarious aspect of this poll is that they (ABCWAPO) claim the overall poll numbers are dead even - and this HAS to be bogus...because the internals are deadly for Kerry..."
Renee ~~~
And because Zogby
Renee ~~~
1). Will there be another terrorist attack in this country? I suspect "yes". Most likely it will not be as serious as 9/11 but most likely there will be something, either during the Republican convention or during September or October. And no, I'm not "hoping" there will be something, this is analytical. Al Qaeda has been trying to hit this country again and will pull out all the stops between now and election day. What I'm not sure of is how this will impact things. On the one hand the country might rally around Bush as the commander-in-chief, on the other hand many people may feel that he has failed to protect the homeland. Hard to say which way it will affect things, but it will have an effect.
2). Most likely there will also be another intifada in Iraq, similiar to the one in April. If the troop casualty count hasn't passed 1,000 by then it will, and this will also impact things.
3). The economy is the big wild card. If the unemployment rate continues to remain high this will have a negative effect. The GDP has been trending downward, from 7.2% to 3.9% to 2.9% last quarter. High energy prices always lead to recession, they did in 1973 and 1979. If oil continues to spike the economy will continue to tank. Of course a terrorist attack will have even more of an effect. More than anything else people vote their pocketbooks.
4). Yo a large extent Bush won in 2000 because so many people were voting against Clinton. This year the same number may turn out to vote against Bush.
5). Given how nasty this election promises to be, I would expect "surprises" over the next 2 months, drug revelations about either candidate, that sort of thing. I'm sure both Bush and Kerry have a number of skeletons in their closets and I'm sure they will pop out this month.
I don't think that this election is going to crystalize until late in October or so. Whatever happens it will most likely lead to another close, bitter election in 2008. This country is bitterly divided and I don't think that will change soon.
dablacksox
Cynic: a blackguard whose faulty vision sees things as they are, not as they ought to be.---Ambrose Bierce, The Devil's Dictionary.
I think that Bush may get a bounce from the convention, but it will most likely be perhaps 3 or 4%, depending on what he says on Thursday night.
This still leaves the race fairly close to dead even and just outside the margin of error for most polls.