Fewer Battlegrounds for Kerry Campaign

iVillage Member
Registered: 06-17-2004
Fewer Battlegrounds for Kerry Campaign
24
Sun, 09-12-2004 - 11:44am

The number of swing states is shrinking, and it ain't good for John Kerry.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A14607-2004Sep11?language=printer


 


Size of Battleground May Be Smaller Than Expected



By Dan Balz

Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, September 12, 2004; Page A01




President Bush's post-convention bounce in state and national polls has left Democratic challenger John F. Kerry with a smaller battlefield upon which to contest the presidential election and a potentially more difficult route to an electoral college victory than his advisers envisioned a few months ago.


The Kerry campaign and Democratic Party officials face difficult choices in the coming days involving the allocation of millions of dollars of television ads and the concentration of campaign workers as they decide whether to concede some states to Bush that they earlier hoped to turn into battlegrounds. Bush may have to do the same but on a more limited scale.


The presidential race looks closer in many battleground states than some national polls suggest, a morale boost for Democrats after Kerry's worst month of the general election. But as the number of truly competitive states has shrunk, Kerry is faced with the reality that he must pick off one of two big battlegrounds Bush won four years ago -- Florida or Ohio -- or capture virtually every other state still available. To do that, he must hold onto several states Al Gore won in 2000 that are now highly competitive.


The Massachusetts senator spent much of the summer trying to expand the number of battleground states with television advertising and campaign trips to places such as Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana and Virginia. But in the past week, Kerry dramatically scaled back the number of states in which he is running ads. Democratic strategists privately acknowledge that only a significant change in the overall race will put some of the states Kerry sought to make competitive back into play. Democratic hopes for victory in Missouri have diminished sharply, as well.


Tad Devine, a senior Kerry-Edwards strategist, said the shift in advertising dollars marked a decision to ensure that Kerry can campaign fully in all of the truly competitive states in the final weeks. "We did not want to be in the situation that the Democratic nominee was in four years ago of having to choose between Ohio and Florida," he said. "That choice will not have to be made this time. We have the resources to compete in those states and many, many more."


Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush-Cheney campaign, called the shift by Kerry an acknowledgement that the Democratic ticket's earlier goal of expanding the electoral map had failed. "They've basically decided they're competing in 14 states and sort of ceded, for all intents and purposes, states they were in at the beginning of the year and spent a lot of money in," he said.


For much of the year, the campaigns have described the presidential race as largely confined to 20 or 21 states, which is where Bush and Kerry were running television ads and campaigning personally. But since Labor Day, the Kerry campaign and the Democratic National Committee have scaled back to 16 states total, with several considered long shots within Democratic circles.


"There's nothing particularly surprising in the provisional choices they've made," said Jim Jordan, a former Kerry campaign manager now working for America Coming Together, an independent Democratic group. "Some of these states, whatever all of our hopes were several months ago, are just hard for the Democrats at the presidential level."


An examination of state polls and interviews with strategists in the two campaigns and the parties suggests that, with less than two months before the election, the 10 most competitive states are, in order of electoral vote strength, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, West Virginia and New Hampshire.


Eleven states are the remaining battlegrounds from earlier in the year. Of those, seven lean toward Bush: Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia. Four tilt toward Kerry: Maine, Michigan, Oregon and Washington.


It takes 270 electoral votes to win the election, and four years ago Bush captured 271 to Gore's 266. Because of reapportionment, Bush's states are now worth 278 electoral votes, while Gore's are worth 260.


The two campaigns already have conceded between them a total of 30 states. If Bush's base states are combined with the battlegrounds leaning toward him, he starts with 217 electoral votes. Kerry's base and leaners total 207. The challenge for both candidates is finding the best combination of the remaining states. The 10 states considered the most competitive account for 114 electoral votes. To win, Kerry would need 63 of the 114. His advisers say that despite their problems, they like their chances.


The fastest route is to win the biggest states: Florida (27 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (21) and Ohio (20). Bush won two of them in 2000 -- Florida only after a 36-day recount and a Supreme Court decision that effectively gave him the state and the presidency -- and both sides believe that whoever claims two of those three this year will win the election.


Bush may face his biggest challenge defending Ohio. A Gallup Poll for USA Today and CNN released last week offered contradictory evidence on the race there. Among likely voters, Bush led Kerry 52 percent to 43 percent, but among registered voters, the race was a statistical tie, with Bush at 47 percent to Kerry's 46 percent.


Kerry strategists see Ohio as ripe for Democrats because the state lost more than 200,000 manufacturing jobs in the past four years. But Bush has drawn enthusiastic crowds in rural areas, where he performed well in 2000 and will have to again to carry the state.


"Four years ago, there was a debate in the Gore campaign about whether to even compete in Florida," Devine said. At this time in 2000, "Gore had 20 paid staffers in Florida. Today, there are 20 offices opened across the state."


But Kerry has troubles in states that Gore won. Pennsylvania appears more competitive than it was four years ago. Wisconsin, with 10 electoral votes, was one of the closest states in 2000 and remains a problem for Kerry, with Democrats worried about his soft support in the Milwaukee area and among Roman Catholics.


Kerry strategists believe they can take back New Hampshire (four electoral votes), but West Virginia and Nevada (five electoral votes each) remain challenges.


There are several unpredictable factors. One is whether Bush's convention bounce proves any more durable than Kerry's. Strategists are betting Bush will lose some of what he gained -- some polls already show that happening -- but that he will have a lead at the edge of the margin of error nonetheless. Another factor is outside events, which have played a significant role in this election and up to now have generally worked against the president.


The third factor is a state that surprises everyone. Four years ago, few thought Bush could win West Virginia until the end of the election, and its five electoral votes proved decisive. (In 1996, only President Bill Clinton among his advisers thought he had a chance of winning Florida, but he did.)


Among the other considerations they will be making in the coming weeks, strategists on both sides will have to take some gambles. Kerry, for example, still has his eye on North Carolina, the home state of his running mate, John Edwards. The Bush team sees the upper Midwest as fertile territory and will run hard at traditionally Democratic Minnesota, as well as Iowa and Wisconsin.


The campaigns know that big events such as the debates and what happens in Iraq will influence the outcome on Nov. 2, but so will the choices Bush and Kerry make in coming weeks as they piece together their electoral map strategies.

Renee ~~~

Renee ~~~

iVillage Member
Registered: 06-17-2004
Mon, 09-13-2004 - 1:16pm

Welcome lilsuzy59!


<<


If Bush really wants to see what the general public thinks of him, let him open the flood gates, and quit keeping out anyone who hasn't already decided to vote for him. >>


I think on election day we'll get

Renee ~~~

iVillage Member
Registered: 04-16-2004
Mon, 09-13-2004 - 2:01pm
Don't ignore them, but just take them for what they are worth, and that is a very rough sampling. If you take them too seriously at this point, you will go nuts watching them bob up and down.

iVillage Member
Registered: 09-06-2004
Mon, 09-13-2004 - 2:04pm
Thanks Debateguy, I'll do that........it's kind of like when you're trying to lose weight, they tell you not to weigh yourself a zillion times a day because things FLUCTUATE! :-)
iVillage Member
Registered: 04-16-2004
Mon, 09-13-2004 - 9:14pm
Exactly.

I only give one poll any true value, and that is the one on election night.

iVillage Member
Registered: 04-16-2004
Tue, 09-14-2004 - 9:17am
Perfect examples.

The current TIME poll has the race as follows:

Bush 54%

Kerry 42$

This is a 1% increase for Bush since the first polls after the Convention.

The Gallup poll has the race as follows:

Bush 49%

Kerry 42%

This is a 1% decrease for Bush since their first poll after the Convention.

If you look at 10 different polls, you will get 10 very different results.

iVillage Member
Registered: 06-17-2004
Sun, 09-19-2004 - 6:04pm
Knight Ridder-MSNBC poll puts Bush ahead in six of seven of the so-called swing states

STEVE THOMMA


Knight Ridder Newspapers http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/9702362.htm


WASHINGTON - President Bush has pulled ahead of John Kerry in six closely contested swing states that he carried in 2000, shifting the electoral landscape to the right and making it more difficult for challenger Kerry to win the White House, according to a new Knight Ridder-MSNBC poll.


Bush leads in six of the seven battleground states he won four years ago and that were considered among the most competitive this year. He leads Kerry in Arizona 50 percent to 39 percent, in Missouri by 48-41, in Nevada by 50-45, in New Hampshire by 49-40, in Ohio by 49-42, and in West Virginia by 45-44.


A seventh swing state from the Bush column, Florida, couldn't be surveyed accurately this week because of the disruption caused by three hurricanes.


The seven states are critical. Assuming they're the most vulnerable of the states that voted for Bush in 2000 - as Democrats, Republicans and independent analysts agree - winning them all would likely ensure that Bush would win at least the same states he carried in 2000 and another majority of the Electoral College, and thus re-election.


In addition, the more that Bush pulls ahead in any of these states, the less time and money he has to spend defending that turf, and the more he can devote to capturing states that Democrat Al Gore won narrowly four years ago, such as Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.


The Knight Ridder-MSNBC survey of 625 likely voters in each of the six states was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research on Sept. 13-16 and had an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Nevada's poll was conducted in conjunction with the Las Vegas Review-Journal and Review-Journal.com.


Polls are merely snapshots in time, not predictions of what will happen six weeks from now on Election Day.


That's not to say that Bush has these states - or the election - sewn up or that Kerry can't still navigate this more challenging terrain.


Bush's lead in many of the states remained small, some within the poll's margin of error. West Virginia appeared easily within Kerry's reach. Florida remained a wild card. And both candidates have yet to face off in debates, which could draw 40 million viewers or more.


The survey revealed several reasons for Bush's relatively strong standing and Kerry's inability so far to make more headway.


One key explanation: Likely voters in most of the states ranked terrorism as their top concern, and they preferred Bush over Kerry to fight terrorism by margins of roughly 3-1.


"Bush is firm," said Evelyn Martindale, 80, an artist from Akron, Ohio. "Kerry is too wishy-washy."


Another reason: Moral issues and family values rivaled many other issues as a top concern among these likely voters.


In Missouri, for example, voters ranked moral issues and family values fourth on their list of concerns, after terrorism, the economy and Iraq, but ahead of health care, jobs and taxes. Across the swing states, strong majorities opposed gay marriage, and white evangelical Christians preferred Bush over Kerry by wide margins.


"It's the moral issues for me," said Vicki Burgess, 49, a hairdresser from Fraziers Bottom, W.Va. "He's pro-life and that's what I am. . . . I'm for a marriage between a man and a woman. . . . Those issues are my top issues."


A third: Bush supporters like their man. Kerry supporters aren't so sure.


About three out of four Bush voters say they support him because they like him. Only about four out of 10 Kerry supporters say they would vote for him because they like him; another 30 percent say they would vote for Kerry because they disliked Bush.


Kerry's main claims to these swing states remain anger over the war in Iraq and anxiety about the economy.


"I don't think we should be in Iraq," said Bonnie Osburn, 79, a retiree in Cape Girardeau, Mo. "It hurts every time they announce another man has been killed over there. I can't trust anything George Bush says anymore."


One thing that doesn't appear to have influenced voters either way: the brouhaha in the media over each candidate's military service during the Vietnam War. About four out of every five voters in the states said it wouldn't influence their vote.


The most recent national polls suggest that the electorate is still volatile. A national poll by Gallup last week showed Bush with a 13-point lead. Another by the Pew Research Center showed a statistical tie.


All national polls include large samples of voters from states such as California, New York and Texas that can swing poll numbers disproportionately. But because their partisan tilt is clear, their impact on the Electoral College is unlikely to change. California and New York are dependably Democratic; Texas is reliably Republican.


The Electoral College balance of power is held in less-predictable swing states. The Knight Ridder-MSNBC poll focused on voters in states that are most competitive between the two major parties and thus hold the key to the election. The pollster, Mason-Dixon, is the leading surveyor of state polls.


(EDITORS: STORY CAN END HERE)


Here's a brief look at each of the six states:


Renee ~~~

iVillage Member
Registered: 08-05-2004
Sun, 09-19-2004 - 7:50pm
I just hope with FL it's shown to be fair and accourate. I've seen a lot of documentary footage of people trying to talk to people involved with all the FL campaign from 2000 and every time people try to ask them a simple question about something dealing with that they walk away. I've recently started watching a thing from BBC. A guy from them was doing a documentary type show on it and trying to find out answers and so far whenever he's tried to talk to people directly incontact with that they walk away and never answer him. *shrug* I just know they'll have a tight seceruity and look-out with that and am glad I live in TN and not FL. XOXO.
iVillage Member
Registered: 08-05-2004
Sun, 09-19-2004 - 7:52pm
How long do most polls wait to update them if they keep a regular update? XOXO.
iVillage Member
Registered: 08-05-2004
Sun, 09-19-2004 - 7:53pm
I mainly ignore polls personally cause I don't find them that useful to me. *shrug* It's interesting and that's really all to me. I mainly wait until the important poll to see who's winner. XOXO.
iVillage Member
Registered: 05-17-2004
Sun, 09-19-2004 - 8:07pm
The electoral map has been going back and forth all summer. Actually the majority of the summer it looked like Kerry wrapped it up electorally. Yes, bush's negative campaign and the swift boat ads took a little bit of a hit on Kerry, but I'm guessing he will come back and squeeze ahead of bush in many of these states as people realize what a disaster Iraq has become, his ties to terrorist nations, his irresponsible fiscal policies, and so on, too much incompetence to relay in one post really.

Actually, I think it's pretty bad for a republican incumbant when states like Colorado, Nevada and West Virginia are in play.

There are still 40 some odd days left until election day. 40 days ago Kerry was ahead on the electoral poll maps. Don't start pouring the champagne yet.