New Jersey's turning purple

iVillage Member
Registered: 06-17-2004
New Jersey's turning purple
16
Thu, 09-16-2004 - 1:04am

THIS POLL RESULT, IF ACCURATE, IS STUNNING


http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerry200409152029.asp


So, how much is all this media focus on Dan Rather hurting the Bush in the presidential race?


Well, SurveyUSA has Bush head of Kerry, 49 to 45.


In New Jersey.


Is this possible? Well, according to Dales, Quinnipiac had Kerry by ten back on Aug. 23.


But Rasmussen had Kerry by 4 among 400 likely voters in Sept. 3. Rutgers/Eagleton had Kerry by two on Sept. 2. And Strategic Vision, a Republican pollster, had Kerry by three on September 12.


It will take another poll or two to confirm that Bush is ahead. But this last bunch of polls suggests its time to take New Jersey out of the “safe Kerry” pile and into the “toss up” pile.


UPDATE: What could be bigger than Kerry's lead evaporating in New Jersey? How about it crumbling in Illinois?


The turn in this election tide could set up a political stunner. Illinois is a Democratic powerhouse in national elections, and John Kerry does maintain a small lead in our exclusive CBS 2 poll, but President Bush appears to be gaining support among voters.

Illinois no longer looks like a sure thing for Democrat John Kerry. His once 13 percentage point lead is now down to four points. That's exactly our survey's margin of accuracy, meaning the contest could be a dead-heat.



 

Renee ~~~

Renee ~~~

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iVillage Member
Registered: 04-16-2004
Fri, 09-17-2004 - 10:24am
Current approval ratings have him between 51 and 53% depending on which poll you look at.

You also have to take into account the other factor....what are Kerry's polling numbers like, and even though Bush hovers around 50%, Kerry's are horrible, in the mid to upper 30's in most polls.

iVillage Member
Registered: 06-17-2004
Fri, 09-17-2004 - 6:32pm
Yeah, well they were never running against John Kerry, were they?

Renee ~~~

Renee ~~~

iVillage Member
Registered: 09-16-2004
Fri, 09-17-2004 - 9:48pm
Good Post Renee. Many states are starting to shift. NJ is one of them for sure. It's about time...as I live here.

These polls don't really mean anything though, as they can be skewed by whomever put it together. It will be really fun to see what happens next in this race.

iVillage Member
Registered: 05-12-2004
Sun, 09-19-2004 - 1:19am
Like you said, if accurate!
iVillage Member
Registered: 04-16-2004
Mon, 09-20-2004 - 4:14pm
CT is getting tighter, and Bush has even gained a lot of ground in NY (although he will never ever win that state).
iVillage Member
Registered: 07-20-2003
Sun, 10-03-2004 - 1:47pm
An update

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Kerry leads in N.J.

Sunday, October 3, 2004

By SHANNON D. HARRINGTON

STAFF WRITER

A poll conducted Friday by The Record showed John Kerry with an eight-point lead over President Bush in New Jersey, despite other polls in recent weeks indicating a virtual deadlock in the race for the state's 15 electoral votes.

Of the 502 likely voters polled in the Garden State, 50 percent said they were planning to vote for the Democratic senator from Massachusetts, and 42 percent said they would vote to reelect Bush, a Republican. Six percent remained undecided, while 2 percent said they would vote for independent Ralph Nader.

The poll was taken the day after the first debate between Bush and Kerry, which was watched by more than 80 percent of those polled by The Record. Nearly half of those who saw the debate said Kerry won, and 34 percent said Bush won.

"There are two bottom lines," said Del Ali, whose firm, Research 2000 of Rockville, Md., conducted the poll on behalf of The Record. "New Jersey is a Kerry state, No. 1. And, No. 2, Kerry did very well in the debate. Bush did not do very well."<<<

http://www.northjersey.com/page.php?qstr=eXJpcnk3ZjczN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXkyNSZmZ2JlbDdmN3ZxZWVFRXl5NjU5Mzc4MSZ5cmlyeTdmNzE3Zjd2cWVlRUV5eTI=

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