Missile defense near rolling out

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Registered: 08-05-2004
Missile defense near rolling out
Mon, 10-04-2004 - 3:29pm
Here's the orginial link: http://www.dailystar.com/dailystar/dailystar/41773.php

Missile defense nearing roll-out


By John J. Lumpkin

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS



WASHINGTON - The military is in the final stages of readying its national ballistic missile defense system, with officials predicting it will be activated before year's end.



But several questions remain, including how well the experimental missile interceptors work.



The Pentagon maintains that any defense against intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) is better than none. Critics contend the Bush administration is vastly overselling an expensive, unproven defense system.



There has been an expectation that the administration will shortly declare that the missile defense system is operational and on alert. Military officials said they know of no specific plans for such an announcement.



Such an announcement would have political and strategic value for the administration.



To those who believe it will work, activating the system would fulfill a pledge by President Bush to have an operational missile defense system by the end of 2004. Such an announcement would also have greater value if it came before the Nov. 2 elections.



Bush has promoted the system while campaigning for re-election.



"We want to continue to perfect this system, so we say to those tyrants who believe they can blackmail America and the free world: You fire; we're going to shoot it down," he said during a stop at Ridley Park, Pa., on Aug. 17.



Military officials are less sanguine, stressing that the initial system will be modest and limited in capability but will improve over time.



Critics of the system, such as Philip Coyle, the Pentagon's former chief of testing, say Bush is wrong.



"Of course we don't have any capability to do that," he said. "For the president to sort of dare them (to fire missiles) is really misleading and even reckless."



Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry has said that, if elected, he would proceed more slowly with the missile defense system and take time for additional testing.



Estimates vary widely on how much the program will cost over its lifetime, with some reaching $100 billion or more. In 2004 and 2005, the Missile Defense Agency expects to spend a total of more than $10 billion.



Many of the doubts about the system, initially designed to protect the United States from an ICBM attack from North Korea and other possible threats in the western Pacific, arise from problems during high-profile tests.



In testing, which critics deride as highly scripted, the interceptors have gone five-for-eight when launched at target missiles.



Two tests scheduled for this year have been delayed because of recently discovered technical problems.



The next test is now set for late November or early December, so it is unclear if it will take place before interceptors in Alaska go on alert. The test after that will take place in early 2005.



"In terms of political symbolism, the bottom line is that President Bush has met his commitment of four years ago to deploy an operational defense of the nation," said Loren Thompson, a military analyst at the Lexington Institute think tank in Washington.



"In terms of operational realities, it is a very rudimentary system that requires much further testing and could not stop a substantial attack against the nation," Thompson said.



As yet unsettled is the military's doctrine and authority for launching the interceptors in a crisis - although such policies are expected to be decided on during the next few weeks.



Because an ICBM launched from Asia could reach the United States in less than half an hour, military officers may have to make quick decisions if an attack is under way. Such doctrine is intended to assist what the general in charge should do if, for example, the number of inbound missiles exceeded the number of interceptors available.