The McCain Campaign Is Cooked

iVillage Member
Registered: 10-20-2008
The McCain Campaign Is Cooked
5
Wed, 10-22-2008 - 1:35pm
So sayeth one of the best political prognosticators around, Charlie Cook, in the National Journal:


OFF TO THE RACES
In Endgame, Metrics Are Adding Up For Obama
It Ain't Over Till It's Over, But Several Key Factors Don't Look Good For McCain

by Charlie Cook


Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2008




One of the most unsettling aspects of this campaign is that for an election cycle so turbulent, with so many surprising twists and turns, over the last few days it suddenly has had the feel of concrete setting. Just seven or eight weeks ago, Sen. Barack Obama had a lead over Sen. John McCain, but it hardly seemed sure; we wondered, is this lead real, is it durable?



But today it seems very unlikely that the focal point of this election is going to shift away from the economy. And as long as the economy is the focal point, it's difficult to see how this gets any better for Republicans up or down the ballot. It's sobering to think of the magnitude an event would have to have to pull voters' minds off the economy, the credit markets that have seized up, the stock market that has been pummeled, the values of their 401(k) and other retirement plans that have plummeted. How can an election that was so volatile now suddenly seem to be so inevitable?





With Obama now outspending McCain routinely by margins of 3- and 4-to-1 in advertising in so many states, it's hard to see how the Arizonan's campaign can drive a message.



At this point it would be difficult to see Republican losses in the Senate and House to be fewer than seven and 20 respectively. A very challenging situation going into September turned into a meltdown last month, the most dire predictions for the GOP early on became the most likely outcome.



The metrics of this election argue strongly that this campaign is over, it's only the memory of many an election that seemed over but wasn't that is keeping us from closing the book mentally on this one. First, no candidate behind this far in the national polls, this late in the campaign has come back to win. Sure, we have seen come-from-behind victories, but they didn't come back this far this late.



Second, early voting has made comebacks harder and would tend to diminish the impact of the kind of late-breaking development that might save McCain's candidacy. With as many as one-third of voters likely to cast their ballot before Election Day, every day more are cast and the campaign is effectively over for them. The longer Obama has this kind of lead and the more votes are cast early, the more voters are out of the pool for McCain.



Third, considering that 89 percent of all voters who identified themselves as Democrats voted for John Kerry four years ago and 93 percent of Republicans cast their ballots for George W. Bush, the switch from parity between the parties to a 10-point Democratic advantage would seem to almost seal this outcome irrespective of the candidates fielded on each side. The unprecedented surges seen in Democratic party registrations in those states that require party affiliations confirm that.



Fourth, just look at the money and spending. With Obama now outspending McCain routinely by margins of 3- and 4-to-1 in advertising in so many states, it's hard to see how the Arizonan's campaign can drive a message. For a time, Obama was matching McCain one for one in negative advertising, then spending double or triple on top of that in positive advertising. Now Obama seems primarily doing positive ads, probably the right move given his lead going into this final stretch. Organizationally, it's hard to find any state where McCain is organized as well as President Bush was four years ago or Obama is today, a product of both money and enthusiasm.



Fifth, while many are talking about the so-called "Bradley effect," voters telling pollsters that they will vote for an African-American candidate when they won't, putting aside the question of whether it ever existed, it hasn't been seen in at least 15 years and the likely surge in turnout among African-American and young people seems sufficient to offset it anyway.



Finally there are the states. Obama is now leading in every state that Al Gore and John Kerry both won, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Wisconsin, and he is ahead in Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico, the three states that went once but not twice for Democrats in 2000 and 2004. He is also ahead in Florida, Colorado and Virginia. If that weren't enough (and it is), he's running basically even in Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio, and even threatening in Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia.



As things are going now, this election would appear to be on a track to match Bill Clinton's 1992 5.6 percent margin over President George H.W. Bush, the question is whether it gets to Bush's 1988 7.7 percent win over Michael Dukakis or Clinton's 8.5 percent win over Robert Dole in 1996.



Maybe some cataclysmic event occurs in the next two weeks that changes the trajectory of this election, but to override these factors, it would have to be very, very big.


iVillage Member
Registered: 04-17-2003
Wed, 10-22-2008 - 1:47pm

hehehe, remember there's only one poll that counts; 11/4/2008

But I will admit, it looks very good for Obama right now and really, is it a surprise? The political winds have been in his favor for 2 years, the Republican brand name is complete crap right now and McCain is old, slow and out of touch. I'm amazed it's still just a 10-15 point race. Hillary, would have been 25+ up if she were the nominee.

But when you look at the state-by-state breakdown, the math does not work for McCain, he is now in a MUST win situation in Pennsylvania and that's not going to happen.

It's not McCain running against Obama as it is McCain running as the status-quo.

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Reward Republicans for 8 years of failure? No way, No how, No McCain!

 

iVillage Member
Registered: 03-25-2007
Wed, 10-22-2008 - 2:36pm

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/10/16/politics/fromtheroad/entry4525989.shtml


"For those of you who are feeling giddy or cocky and think this is all set, I just say one word - I guess it's two - New Hampshire," Obama said reminding the crowd of his loss in the state’s primary contest last January just days after scoring a major victory in the Iowa caucus.


Note:

Sopal

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iVillage Member
Registered: 03-19-2003
Wed, 10-22-2008 - 2:39pm

and here is an email I just got from Obama:


Sandy --


I can tell you right now who's going to win this election -- the campaign that steps up its ground game in the final days.


The race is deadlocked in a number of crucial battleground states, including Ohio, Missouri, and Indiana. And we're neck-and-neck in Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada.


We have to make our final, tough decisions about where to fight and how strong we can make our team. And those choices will depend on the financial resources we have tomorrow at midnight.


If you make a donation of $10 or more before the deadline, you'll receive a limited edition Obama-Biden car magnet.


The margins of victory in this election will be slim, and it's going to be decided in the field.


We're up against the Republicans' proven get out the vote push -- which delivered victories for George Bush in 2000 and 2004.


We can't fall short. There's too much at stake in this election.


This campaign has contacted 11 million voters since the convention. But to hit our targets, we need to contact three times that number of voters between now and Election Day.


The more resources we have on hand, the more voters we can reach.


From the start, our field program has been in your hands. It depends on your time, your energy -- and your generosity.


You decide how big we can go.


The deadline is midnight tomorrow, October 23rd. Please make a donation of $10 or more right now and receive your Obama-Biden car magnet:


https://donate.barackobama.com/deadlinemagnet


With your support, Barack could win in a number of closely contested battleground states.


We need to do everything we can to extend our reach -- we can't afford to look back on November 5th and say we could have done more.


Thanks for your commitment to building the best field program in the history of presidential politics,


Jon


Jon Carson
National Field Director

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iVillage Member
Registered: 07-03-2008
Wed, 10-22-2008 - 2:47pm
I got an e-mail from the McCain/Palin campaign on saying yes to support Sarah's Law (Proposition 4) which, actualy, i could suport. imagine that!
iVillage Member
Registered: 03-19-2003
Wed, 10-22-2008 - 2:54pm

does Obama?


the reason I'd want to know is b/c an abortion is a medical procedure that like all others can have complications and I'd want to know if my dd had one so I could make sure she was healthy after.

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