AP Poll WRONG: Obama NOT tied w/ McCain
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AP Poll WRONG: Obama NOT tied w/ McCain
| Thu, 10-23-2008 - 1:06am |
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
· 10/22/2008 04:59:00 PM ET
| Thu, 10-23-2008 - 1:06am |
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
· 10/22/2008 04:59:00 PM ET
Edited 10/23/2008 1:51 am ET by mileaimn
Interesting.... from the pdf of the survey (sorry for the formatting):
http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_3_Topline_FINAL.pdf
Sopal
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((((Of the likely voters 33% were from rural areas.
Thursday, October 23, 2008 - Updated 4h ago
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Joe Dwinell is an online and print editor assigned to the Herald's City Desk.
By Jay Bookman | Wednesday, October 22, 2008, 06:13 PM
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
A new AP poll has given conservatives hope and liberals palpitations, putting Obama up by just one point among likely voters.
So far, though, that result’s an outlier. The latest Washington Post/ABC poll puts the margin among likely voters at 11; a new Fox poll puts it at nine, also among likely voters. So the tricky part seems to be in how you define a likely voter. (Among total respondents, the AP poll puts the margin at 10 points.)
To see how that can affect a poll, take a look at Gallup’s tracking poll, which slices its data three ways. Among registered voters, Gallup puts the margin at nine points. Among those judged as likely voters by their own statements, the margin is eight points. And among those judged as likely voters based on their own statements AND their history of voting, the Gallup margin is five. In that third version, a voter who has never voted but insists she will vote this time may not be classified as a likely voter.
So in other words, how much credence does a pollster give to those who claim to be motivated to participate this time, even though they don’t have a record of voting in the past?
Based on turnout in early voting, I’d say that a lot of those people are actually showing up. But AP is less convinced. Maybe they’re right — we’ll know in 12 days and a few hours.
By the way, there’s a hilarious piece by Roger Simon at Politico, headlined “Democrats’ gloom deepens,” about the refusal of many Obama supporters to believe the poll numbers.
“The Democrats are poised on the brink of victory. And they cannot stand it. The news is too good. Something has to go wrong.
On Saturday, Charlie Cook, an independent analyst and author of the Cook Report, wrote: “This election isn’t over, but it is looking very bad for Republicans — and seems to be getting worse.”
This plunged the Democrats into a deep gloom. Good news is always bad news for them.”