Hurricane Frances
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| Wed, 09-01-2004 - 10:02pm |
My parents have been staying on Merritt Island to housesit, as you all know. They are leaving in the morning since they are under mandatory evacuation again. They are being told to be out by 2 PM since they are predicting it will hit land where they are staying. They are gonna follow their close friends on the evvacuation, who live on Merritt Island as well. Her husband is bed ridden and doesnt travel well at all. So my parents are gonna follow them as far as they can and then head to Mississippi for my sister's. The cat they are keeping will be joining the neighbors on their evac since they will have to come back to Florida. My parents were leaving in a week anyhow to spend some time with my sister and then come back home (here) for the winter. So they wont be returning and Dad is afraid there wont be much to come back to anyhow. Everyone in the retirement trailer park are definitely leaving this time. The news said that their area is expecting 18 foot surges!
So for those that are in Florida or who have family there...my thoughts are with you. If you have family, please call them to see what their plans are. Im sure this will greatly effect several states, so I will keep you in my thoughts as well. I plan to be watching alot of the weather in the next few days.
Edited 9/1/2004 10:04 pm ET ET by pickle_puss

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What part of this post did you not understand? And...DON'T BOSS!
Amy
Well since its not a mandatory evacuation why don’t you go sit there and you can talk to astir and hippo all night see how it would be safer for you to do that then anything else….
Keeping our fingers crossed and positive thoughts and prayers sent out to all concerned. Let us know how your family is doing. I know it won't make much of a big difference in the scheme of things, but I did hear tonight (Thursday) on the Weather Channel that Frances has be downgraded from a 4 to a 3. Please keep us posted!!
Hugs and Prayers!!
Elle
Dawn
Please don't. Listen, it's possible that readers may have relatives/friends in Florida and we don't need *stories* about how "this is the worst hurricane ever." It's not. Let's put this into perspective, so that those of us in Florida (or who know people in Florida) don't panic.
The truth is, this morning at 6 o'clock Gov. Jeb Bush issued the order that everyone on barrier islands on the Atlantic side of Florida (and that would include Merritt island) should evacuate now. So as of this morning, not yesterday when Palm Beach and Miami were under evacuation orders, your folks and anyone else on barrier islands, should be getting out.
You have to understand, Florida is evacuating 2.5 million people, and if everyone hit the roads at the exact same time....no one would get to safety. When I read your post, it's like calling "fire" in an elevator. In order for EVERYONE to be safe, Forte already gave you good advice yesterday.....you have to be calm, and follow orders *in the order given.*
So let's take your post, in order (in case it might really help somebody else).
>>They said that their news is saying that this could possibly be the worst hurricane to hit the States. Its so large that right now, it would span from the Keys to Georgia.<<
People, rely on government sources (myflorida.com), Red Cross, OFFICIAL SOURCES. It sounds like these tourists are very scared, and understandably, but they are not giving you the truth. The truth is, officials will tell you, this never was projected to be "the worst hurricane to hit the States." In fact, no one would ever say such a thing because no one would ever want "dear in headlights" to set in (as it apparently has with Shawna's parents). Fear is deadly. The truth is, according to historical record and according to what every local or Florida State source will tell you....the "worst hurricane to hit the States" happened in 1935 and it hit Miami at over 200 mph. It was over cat. 5, and this particular storm Frances (at it's worse so far) was never predicted anywhere close to that. Yesterday, it was projected at a cat 4, and today it's cat 3, and by the time it gets to the Orlando area its projected to be only a strong tropical storm. Period. This is still serious, of course, but you have to get your facts straight, Shawna, and not tell stories and not make it worse than it really is. It's bad enough as it stands,and no one needs "tales of woe" so that panic sets in. The second worse storm to ever hit the states was Andrew, in 1995 or so, and that one was always stronger than this one too. You may remember Andrew? It took out homestead. So no, this storm Frances----as bad as it is--was never any where near the "worst storm to hit the states."
The problem with Frances (and I think Forte told you?) is that this particular storm is so big. Not as big as you say, but BIG. It's as big as the State of Texas and while it couldn't span from the Keys to Georgia (if laid out on a map thusly) the scope of it's wind damage could span from Miami 800 miles up. That's not to say the EYE is that big. At it's worst, it was only 150 miles at the eye (the worst part) You have to know what it is, and what it ISN'T. That helps you know where to evacuate TO, and where to stay away FROM.
>>They are being told to be out by 2 PM since they are predicting it will hit land where they are staying. <<
NO, they are NOT predicting it will hit land at merritt island. In fact, they were NEVER predicting it would "hit land" there. If you go to fl_hurricanes.gov you can see where it has been predicted to hit, and where it is still likely to "hit." Truth in posting would have to be....it's always lunatic to stay in a mobile home on ANY barrier island in Florida. And mobile homes are ALWAYS evacuated, because those things are too darn dangerous anyhow. BUT TRUTH IS, the people who live between Miami and Palm Beach are the ones who....all along...are most likely to sustain the "hit" (that's where it has always been scheduled to make landfall, though no one knows for sure the exact point until it happens). Orlando is at least 100 miles as the crow flies from there and as the storm turns inland they will get a lot of flooding, wind, etc. Merritt island will likely get same, but Shawna so will most of Florida since, as you say, this is a big big storm. By the time it goes anywhere near Orlando, it will still be fierce, but likely downgraded since land tends to do that. No promises, the storm could still change direction {?} but it's never not ever been reported that landfall would occur at merritt island.
>>They are gonna follow their close friends on the evvacuation, who live on Merritt Island as well. Her husband is bed ridden and doesnt travel well at all. So my parents are gonna follow them as far as they can and then head to Mississippi for my sister's. The cat they are keeping will be joining the neighbors on their evac since they will have to come back to Florida.<<
Well, that's their decision but, again, that's where understanding what the storm is actually likely to do comes in handy. Who knows, whether it will jump the Gulf after landfall (some models are predicting that) and if it does the 2.5 million people who cram into the little Gulf communities and inland will all be on Interstate 10 along with all the locals trying to get out of dodge. Historically, Mississippi isn't such a good place to be if hurricanes enter the Gulf, as Biloxi hurricanes will tell you.
>>The news said that their area is expecting 18 foot surges! <<
No, the news didn't say any such thing. The news said, if the hurricane enters at Palm Beach (where it's always been scheduled to enter) the storm surges there will be 10-15 ft and Palm Beach (which is low lying) will likely be submerged in water. The NEWS said (and has said all week long) that the danger to your parents area, the barrier islands near orlando, will be flooding of 5-8 and sustained winds, and inland areas can expect high sustained winds, probably 100mph. No where near what Miami/Palm Beach is set to experience.
>>So for those that are in Florida or who have family there...my thoughts are with you. If you have family, please call them to see what their plans are. Im sure this will greatly effect several states, so I will keep you in my thoughts as well. I plan to be watching alot of the weather in the next few days.<<
Thankyou, but as my mom always said (and you have a thread asking "what did your mother tell you") "You can't unsay a cruel thing."
People with interests in Florida, Forte told you rightly. Don't overuse phones. Communicate by e-mail if your relatives in Florida have cable connection. Otherwise,have them contact one (only one) relative OUT OF THE AREA to let everyone else know they are safe. And then you, who are out of the area, should check on them by contacting that relative who is not in this area.
If anyone wants to help Florida, don't call in and tie up lines which are needed for emergency purposes. The person they may be trying to save could be someone you know! If you want to help, trot on down to your local blood bank and give blood. Hurricane Frances is huge, it is bad, but Shawna dramatizes when she says it's the worst. No one in authority in Florida ever said such a ridiculous thing. Frankly, the one behind it has news people jumping,because there is more to come and the next hurricane is Ivan. All I can say is, if you are a tourist and nervous about hurricanes, then don't visit Florida during hurricane season. And for gosh sakes, don't house yourself up in a mobile home on a barrier island and then come off with stories like these. It's not about panic. it's about preparedness.
Astri
As to the description of Frances given, when word first got out about this Hurricane, those were all things being said by the media. You are so quick to quote the written word, so why would these things surprise you. They were all things being said by the news reports.
They don't actually KNOW where it is going to hit, and say so repeatedly. So, your little ascertian as to where it will hit is wrong also.
Again, since you loved slamming people about being concerned about others' safety in a storm, you come off pretty callous and unconcerned. If it wasn't as bad as you say, so many people wouldn't be evacuating. Yes, my dear, most of the east coast of Florida has left for higher ground.....have you SEEN the news lately.
I hope EVERYONE in Florida is safe.....not just select few persons.
Dawn
The trick is, knowing WHEN. If you saw national news, you know that traffic out of the area was moving on the interstate at 16 miles per hour. No one wants to get hit by a hurricane on the roads. The important thing yesterday was Miami residents, and Palm beach, where the hurricane is expected to make a direct hit.
BTW, my family is not hunkered down in a trailer on a barrier island, but for those who do own mobile homes, I wish you luck that your home will be safe. As you are in a wheelchair, Astri, I should think you would be a little more understanding towards people's situations. Some people have no choice, and a little compassion, something you sing for when it suits you, is a good thing. Like you said, don't say an unkind thing. I don't think you take your own advice too often.
Edited 9/3/2004 2:58 pm ET ET by two_kids
Edited 9/3/2004 3:03 pm ET ET by two_kids
Edited 9/3/2004 3:05 pm ET ET by two_kids
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