You’re not eating more, your fridge isn’t any fuller, and yet you’re doling out more cash at the supermarket than ever before. Is it your imagination or have food prices gone up? “Absolutely,” says Phil Lempert, A.K.A. the Supermarket Guru, a leading food industry analyst, writer and trend-watcher. Lempert says over the past three or four years prices “have increased and will continue to increase” thanks to climate change and the US’s recent drought. Forget conspiracy theories. “It’s not the industry just raising prices. The actual costs have gone up,” he says. “And over the next 20 years it’s only going to get worse.” With the food-focused holidays just around the corner, what’s a budget-conscious host to do?